John Williams of Shadow Statistics believes that US government has long been presenting misleading economic data. Much of this originated in statistical agencies rejigging calculation methodologies which started in a big way in 1994 during the Clinton Administration. The upshot, says Williams, a gold fan, is massive hidden inflationary pressures.
Headline inflation, for example, which is currently running in the 1% range y/y, would be between 3.5 and 7 percentage points higher using previous methodologies, he notes. Worse, lower official inflation numbers reduce the COLA increases that governments pay pensioners, which in turn amounts to de facto defaulting. Apartment building owners in rent control districts where increases are tied to headline inflation results are also hard-hit because they aren’t allowed raise their prices to match rising costs.
Understating inflation also enables the US government to overstate real GDP, which is calculated by subtracting the inflation rate from nominal GDP. As for headline unemployment, which is currently under 5%, Williams estimates that it could be as high as 23%, if calculated using previous methodologies or by polling ordinary people on how they regard their existing status.
Did the US economy shrink by 40%? Jon Hellevig of the Awara Group thinks that the economies of all of the major western nations have been materially shrinking for some time because statisticians fail to account for the effects of debt increases in GDP calculations.
Consider: if America borrows and spends a trillion dollars in a year, and its economy grows by a trillion dollars more that year, would the country really be ahead? Hellevig, – who admits that calculations in this area are complex – says no. Furthermore, if you believe that America needs to pay back the trillions that it borrowed between 2009 and 2013, then Hellevig estimates that its economy actually shrank by more than 40% during that time.
https://www.valuewalk.com/2016/09/us...mic-data-fake/