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  #1  
Old 10-18-2018, 04:19 PM
n david n david is offline
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Mid-Term Election Nov 6th

Dems and the media saying there will be a blue wave which will help the Dems take the House and win a few seats in the Senate.

GOP says not so fast! They're predicting a red tsunami which will help them keep the House and possible add a couple seats in the Senate.

Disclaimer: the last election (2016) I was wayyyyy off with Trump vs Clinton. I read and believed the polls, which all predicted a landslide for Clinton. Two years later, I'm very happy I was so wrong.

This year I'm not reading into the polls. However, I did read something interesting found HERE.

Some dude named Larry Schweikart has been tweeting about early ballots and comparing numbers from 2016 to those this year. He says there has been an increase in both early ballots cast (votes in the bank) and requests for ballots from Republicans and that numbers of these ballots are exceeding expectations and previous numbers.

https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart

He appears to be agreeing with the red tsunami prediction by pointing to ballot statistics.
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  #2  
Old 10-18-2018, 04:28 PM
n david n david is offline
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Re: Mid-Term Election Nov 6th

The POTUS is in town tomorrow night for an event.

The Dems thought they could turn McCain's Senate seat blue (instead of purple) with Kyrsten Sinema... most polls have her with a lead over Martha McSally. I did see one recent poll which has McSally with a 4pt lead. Also, the past week and a half, Sinema has been bombarded with past video and audio and tweets of her insulting Arizona and Arizona voters. She's called AZ the "meth lab of democracy" among other insults and also back in the early 2000s, said during a radio interview that she didn't care if Americans joined to fight with the Taliban.

Anything is possible. AZ had Napolitano for Gov, so it's never a safe red state. But I just don't see Sinema beating McSally. Sinema is getting a ton of money from CA and Hollyweird, but hopefully AZ voters will elect McSally.

Last edited by n david; 10-18-2018 at 04:41 PM.
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  #3  
Old 10-18-2018, 04:40 PM
n david n david is offline
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Re: Mid-Term Election Nov 6th

Look at the line of people already in line for Trump's rally tonight in Montana...

https://twitter.com/MattForMontana/s...84302357508096

All the polls show Tester up by almost 5 points. Not sure what the ballot returns are looking like.
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  #4  
Old 10-18-2018, 05:32 PM
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Re: Mid-Term Election Nov 6th

I believe that I read, in the past, that early voting is normally a Democrat thing. So, if that is true, this is interesting. I know one of my relatives is ticked over Brett Kavanaugh. They don't normally vote mid-term, have no idea why not, but will be doing so this year.

I have been on three conference calls with Ted Cruz. He is pumped!!
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Old 10-18-2018, 05:44 PM
n david n david is offline
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Re: Mid-Term Election Nov 6th

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Originally Posted by Pressing-On View Post
I believe that I read, in the past, that early voting is normally a Democrat thing. So, if that is true, this is interesting. I know one of my relatives is ticked over Brett Kavanaugh. They don't normally vote mid-term, have no idea why not, but will be doing so this year.

I have been on three conference calls with Ted Cruz. He is pumped!!
During my lunch break today, I turned on MSNBC because I saw this tweet regarding Beto:

MSNBC tweeted: "Beto O'Rourke's campaign has transcended politics to become something of a political-cultural phenomenon."

To which Cam Edwards responded: "“Transcended politics” = “He’s gonna lose”."

https://twitter.com/CamEdwards/statu...25373216899072

Anyway, I caught a bit of a segment about Beto during my lunch and sure enough, MSNBC is already laying the groundwork for Beto losing. It was Ali Velshi hosting and asking her guest what loss could be viewed as something good for Beto and Democrats. Is it good if he only loses by 4-5% pts? Basically the whole segment I watched was that they believe he's going to lose, in spite of his "rock star" rally events and the record amount of money he's raised the past quarter.

I hope Cruz trounces Beto. Hope it's not even close. I read this article in the NY Times, where they claim there's a growing surge of white, evangelical women who are voting for Beto and the Democrats this year, instead of the GOP. This, allegedly, due to Kavanaugh and other MeToo related issues.

I don't believe it.
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  #6  
Old 10-18-2018, 06:00 PM
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Re: Mid-Term Election Nov 6th

Quote:
Originally Posted by n david View Post
During my lunch break today, I turned on MSNBC because I saw this tweet regarding Beto:

MSNBC tweeted: "Beto O'Rourke's campaign has transcended politics to become something of a political-cultural phenomenon."

To which Cam Edwards responded: "“Transcended politics” = “He’s gonna lose”."

https://twitter.com/CamEdwards/statu...25373216899072

Anyway, I caught a bit of a segment about Beto during my lunch and sure enough, MSNBC is already laying the groundwork for Beto losing. It was Ali Velshi hosting and asking her guest what loss could be viewed as something good for Beto and Democrats. Is it good if he only loses by 4-5% pts? Basically the whole segment I watched was that they believe he's going to lose, in spite of his "rock star" rally events and the record amount of money he's raised the past quarter.

I hope Cruz trounces Beto. Hope it's not even close. I read this article in the NY Times, where they claim there's a growing surge of white, evangelical women who are voting for Beto and the Democrats this year, instead of the GOP. This, allegedly, due to Kavanaugh and other MeToo related issues.

I don't believe it.
They are trying to gaslight us like they did with Abortion Barbie, aka, Wendy Davis. Now, they want to turn Beto into another John F. Kennedy. That isn't going to happen as he is a Socialist. But, hey, he can ride a skateboard. Turns on the dumb, college youth, I guess.
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Old 10-18-2018, 06:50 PM
Originalist Originalist is offline
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Re: Mid-Term Election Nov 6th

I have seen some polls that show Republican candidates leading in early voting as well. Encouraging.
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  #8  
Old 10-20-2018, 10:19 AM
n david n david is offline
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Re: Mid-Term Election Nov 6th

Read this morning that Trump is going to TX to campaign for Cruz. The campaign rented a venue that seats 18K, and over 77K have requested tickets.

Incredible!

I had thought about taking my oldest daughter to the rally here last night. But I knew people would be lined up early and she has school, I have work...

At noon, the line was a mile long. Doors didn't open until 4pm. Fortunately it was only 85° or so. There were photos I saw of thousands left standing outside watching on jumbotrons.
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  #9  
Old 10-20-2018, 01:19 PM
Originalist Originalist is offline
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Re: Mid-Term Election Nov 6th

Quote:
Originally Posted by n david View Post
Read this morning that Trump is going to TX to campaign for Cruz. The campaign rented a venue that seats 18K, and over 77K have requested tickets.

Incredible!

I had thought about taking my oldest daughter to the rally here last night. But I knew people would be lined up early and she has school, I have work...

At noon, the line was a mile long. Doors didn't open until 4pm. Fortunately it was only 85° or so. There were photos I saw of thousands left standing outside watching on jumbotrons.
Trump needs to come to Florida to campaign for GOP gubernatorial candidate Ron Desantis who is tied with a Marxist radical that wants to end parental choice on education, drastically raise corporate taxes, make Florida a sanctuary state and implement a state income tax. How this clown is doing so good in the polls is beyond reason.
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  #10  
Old 10-22-2018, 05:17 PM
n david n david is offline
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Re: Mid-Term Election Nov 6th

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Originally Posted by Originalist View Post
How this clown is doing so good in the polls is beyond reason.
Careful with the polls. You know this, because you kept telling me this in the 2016 election, when I was saying Trump was going to lose in a landslide.

@LarrySchweikart Oct 20

FL absentees; Rs +51,000 now in returns

Rs 386,702 (44%)
Ds 335,702 (38%)
Indy/Other 155,979 (17.7%)




@LarrySchweikart Oct 19

1) Last night I said we have 12 data points (AZ statewide, FL statewide +4 specific counties, IA + 2 counties, OH 2 counties, and NC).

Every single one was showing GOP turnout higher than midterm levels of 2014 and all but one (a county) showing turnout above 2016.

2) If I recall all the data correctly, D turnout/performance was below that of 2016 and, in the case of IA, below that of 2014.

3) Now we have two more data points to add: news out of WY that a net of 10k switched from D/other to R in last six months & turnout #s in Knox Co. TN. Out of 12 MEASURABLE data points--not polls which are opinions of what people "might" do in the future---every single one is favors the Rs.

4) I'll admit, I got a tad depressed for a minute yesterday when the latest Siena/NYT polls came out . . . before I was reminded they were making 60,000 calls to reach a mere 300 respondents.

SIXTY THOUSAND!

5) Who do you think is NOT responding?

Conservatives, Republicans, people with families & jobs.

6) That means these NYT polls are utterly worthless with a margin of error of 20% or more

7) So once again, we have real world data about what has ALREADY HAPPENED, stuff we can count . . . and unreliable polls of the opinions of people who won't even vote about what they might do if it doesn't rain or if they don't have a hangnail that day.
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