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Esther
05-01-2009, 02:35 PM
April 29, 2009
After I returned from a public health meeting yesterday with community leaders and school officials in Comal County , Heather suggested I send an update to everyone, because what we are hearing privately from the CDC and Health Department is so different from what you are hearing in the media. Some of you or maybe all of you know this, but I will just list what facts I know.

- The virus is infectious for about 2 days prior to symptom onset
- Virus sheds more than 7 days after symptom onset (possibly as long as 9 days) (this is unusual)
- Since it is such a novel (new) virus, there is no "herd immunity," so the "attack rate" is very high. This is the percentage of people who come down with a virus if exposed. Almost everyone who is exposed to this virus will become infected, though not all will be symptomatc. That is much higher than seasonal flu, which averages 10-15%. The "clinical attack rate" may be around 40-50%. This is the number of people who show symptoms. This is a huge number. It is hard to convey the seriousness of this.
- The virulence (deadliness) of this virus is as bad here as in Mexico , and there are folks on ventilators here in the US , right now. This has not been in the media, but a 23 month old near here is fighting for his life, and a pregnant woman just south of San Antonio is fighting for her life. In Mexico , these folks might have died already, but here in the US , folks are getting Tamiflu or Relenza quickly, and we have ready access to ventilators. What this means is that within a couple of weeks, regional hospitals will likely become overwhelmed.
- Some of the kids with positive cases in Comal County had more than 70 contacts before diagnosis.
- There are 10-25 times more actual cases (not "possible" cases -- actual), than what is being reported in the media. The way they fudge on reporting this is that it takes 3 days to get the confirmatory nod from the CDC on a given viral culture, but based on epidemiological grounds, we know that there are more than 10 cases for each "confirmed" case right now.
- During the night, we crossed the threshold for the definition of a WHO, Phase 6 global pandemic. This has not happened in any of our lifetimes so far. We are in uncharted territory.
- I expect President Obama will declare an emergency sometime in the next 72-96 hours. This may not happen, but if it doesn't, I will be surprised. When this happens, all public gathering will be cancelled for 10 days.
- I suggest all of us avoid public gatherings. Outdoor activities are not as likely to lead to infection. It is contained areas and close contact that are the biggest risk.
- Tamiflu is running out. There is a national stockpile, but it will have to be carefully managed, as it is not enough to treat the likely number of infections when this is full-blown. I don't think there is a big supply of Relenza, but I do not know those numbers. If I had to choose, I would take Relenza, as I think it gets more drug to the affected tissue than Tamiflu.
- You should avoid going to the ER if you think you have been exposed or are symptomatic. ER 's south of here are becoming overwhelmed -- and I mean that -- already. It is coming in waves, but the waves are getting bigger.
- It appears that this flu produces a distinctive "hoarseness" in many victims. The symptoms, in general, match other flu's; namely, sore throat, body aches, headache, cough, and fever. Some have all these symptoms, while others may have only one or two.
- N-Acetyl-Cysteine -- a nutritional supplement available at the health food store or Wimberley Pharmacy, has been shown to prevent or lessen the severity of influenza. I suggest 1200mg, twice a day for adults, and 600mg twice a day in kids over 12. It would be hard to get kids under 12 to take it, but you could try opening the capsules and putting it on yogurt. For 40 pounds and up, 300-600 mg twice a day, for less than 40 pounds, half that.
- Oscillococinum, a homeopathic remedy, has been vindicated as quite effective in a large clinical trial in Europe , with an H1N1 variant. You can buy this at Hill Country Natural Foods, or the Wimberley Pharmacy.

Mosby48
05-01-2009, 04:02 PM
I don't know where your email came from but we got the same email. If you do a google search, there are several of these going around. In Texas they are quoting a Dr. Gitterles in San Marcos. He actually sent a email but says now someone has altered it adding several paragraphs which he didn't include and that are not true. Another doctor is being quoted who never sent an email. Also, they said several emails on swine flu have viruses attached. So the buzzards are all ready active. The CDC is probably downplaying the numbers but they are not as bad as that email says, YET!

Mosby48
05-01-2009, 04:06 PM
Another point, the article I read did not address whether or not the two health food supplements mentioned in the email are good to take. And if they will work on the flu virus. We need to research that.

Pragmatist
05-01-2009, 04:10 PM
Anyone hesitant to go to church on Sunday? We have cases in our county and I'm debating.

Ron
05-01-2009, 04:14 PM
I will be in Church on Sunday!:thumbsup

Esther
05-01-2009, 04:22 PM
I don't know where your email came from but we got the same email. If you do a google search, there are several of these going around. In Texas they are quoting a Dr. Gitterles in San Marcos. He actually sent a email but says now someone has altered it adding several paragraphs which he didn't include and that are not true. Another doctor is being quoted who never sent an email. Also, they said several emails on swine flu have viruses attached. So the buzzards are all ready active. The CDC is probably downplaying the numbers but they are not as bad as that email says, YET!

Must be the same email. What is he saying was added to his email?

Sherri
05-01-2009, 06:41 PM
I just had a doctor tell me to take Vitamin D3 in large doses, as it is a natural antioxidant. We will be flying for several hours, so we started the vitamins tonight.

Praxeas
05-01-2009, 06:59 PM
Interesting...I heard on the radio they interviewed some Dr and he said this flu virus is actually less severe than the seasonal flu....hmmm

And it is treatable with Tamiflu

Praxeas
05-01-2009, 07:00 PM
I just had a doctor tell me to take Vitamin D3 in large doses, as it is a natural antioxidant. We will be flying for several hours, so we started the vitamins tonight.
Do you know this Dr? I have a hard time thinking a Dr would say "large doses" and not give you a specific dose so that you don't OVER DOSE

Praxeas
05-01-2009, 07:02 PM
I just had a doctor tell me to take Vitamin D3 in large doses, as it is a natural antioxidant. We will be flying for several hours, so we started the vitamins tonight.
I would also recommend getting several surgical masks and wearing them and changing them every now and then (since they get wet from your own mouth and become less effective

Also take hand sanitizers with you and don't touch objects someone else used then touch your mouth, nose or eyes before washing

Sherri
05-01-2009, 07:09 PM
Do you know this Dr? I have a hard time thinking a Dr would say "large doses" and not give you a specific dose so that you don't OVER DOSEHe didn't tell me "large doses" - he gave me a dosage to take. I was just saying on here that it was a large dose. Sorry for the confusion!

Sherri
05-01-2009, 07:10 PM
I would also recommend getting several surgical masks and wearing them and changing them every now and then (since they get wet from your own mouth and become less effective

Also take hand sanitizers with you and don't touch objects someone else used then touch your mouth, nose or eyes before washingWell, I was just told that masks don't do any good in keeping out the infection, as it is not air-borne. They only do good if the infected people wear them and keep the germs in!

HeavenlyOne
05-01-2009, 07:30 PM
Well, I was just told that masks don't do any good in keeping out the infection, as it is not air-borne. They only do good if the infected people wear them and keep the germs in!

Sherri, it is airborne or it wouldn't matter if the infected people wore them or not. The flu is caught by lack of handwashing and people not covering their mouths and noses when they cough and sneeze, thus making the virus airborne where others inhale it. It's really no different than how you would catch a cold.

Be careful of the hype that's being driven by the media though. Thousands of flights take place every day and more people will die in the next week from blood clots in their legs from being on a plane than will die from the swine flu this year.

Esther
05-01-2009, 08:03 PM
The hospitals are full but from what I am researching so far it doesn't seem to be fatal here in the USA. Thankfully. Not saying that it can't be.

HeavenlyOne
05-01-2009, 08:05 PM
The hospitals are full but from what I am researching so far it doesn't seem to be fatal here in the USA. Thankfully. Not saying that it can't be.

The hospitals aren't full from swine flu. They won't keep them unless they are critical, and so far, that's not been a problem.

Esther
05-01-2009, 08:10 PM
The hospitals aren't full from swine flu. They won't keep them unless they are critical, and so far, that's not been a problem.

It is full of folks thinking they MAY have it. At least that is what I have been told.

HeavenlyOne
05-01-2009, 08:19 PM
It is full of folks thinking they MAY have it. At least that is what I have been told.

Media hype is causing that. If they did have it, going to the ER to infect everyone else is the WORST thing they can do.

commonsense
05-01-2009, 09:39 PM
Media hype is causing that. If they did have it, going to the ER to infect everyone else is the WORST thing they can do.


I think this is a serious concern for all, but the media coverage almost makes people tune it out. We should definitely be vigilant and keep up on any local outbreaks.

We leave Mon AM for vacation. I'm taking extra hand sanitizer and maybe some Lysol.

My job involves contact with the public; it's not practical to stay home.

HeavenlyOne
05-01-2009, 10:36 PM
I think this is a serious concern for all, but the media coverage almost makes people tune it out. We should definitely be vigilant and keep up on any local outbreaks.

We leave Mon AM for vacation. I'm taking extra hand sanitizer and maybe some Lysol.

My job involves contact with the public; it's not practical to stay home.

Actually, I think the opposite is true. The media coverage is creating a panic that is unfounded. Every year, over 40,000 people in the US die from influenza and have since 1979. Do we panic over that from October to March when the outbreaks are at their peak? Of course not, but neither does the media report everytime someone tests positive or thinks they have it.

Right now, 99% of reports are negative for the virus.

Hand washing is the best thing one can do to combat this. Let me also add that hand sanitizer is just as good. Anyone thinking they are sick should stay home. It's that simple. But the media won't talk about that...LOL!

In the meantime, people will flock to the ER's, putting others at risk unnecessarily.

Praxeas
05-02-2009, 12:25 PM
Well, I was just told that masks don't do any good in keeping out the infection, as it is not air-borne. They only do good if the infected people wear them and keep the germs in!
The flu IS air borne. People cough and sneeze without covering their mouth and water particles get suspended in the air for a while and you come in contact. Who told you it is not air borne.

If you are on an air plane that is packed with people that is TOO close to be with others that might be coughing or sneezing without a mask

Praxeas
05-02-2009, 12:26 PM
The hospitals are full but from what I am researching so far it doesn't seem to be fatal here in the USA. Thankfully. Not saying that it can't be.
There aren't THAT many reported cases yet people for the Hospitals to be full. If they are full it is for other reasons.

Praxeas
05-02-2009, 12:26 PM
Media hype is causing that. If they did have it, going to the ER to infect everyone else is the WORST thing they can do.
I agree.

Praxeas
05-02-2009, 12:29 PM
I already posted something on how to keep from getting the flu or prevent it's spread. It was put out by the CDC.

Look, a lot of people die from complications brought on by the regular flu...so apparently this Swine flu is not any worse. The elderly and very young have the most to be concerned. Tamiflu works too so it's not like there is no cure.

The problem is we have no vaccine and they are concerned this could be a pandemic

MikeinAR
05-02-2009, 02:00 PM
My wife works in an ER and they have been slammed all week. Some people are potential cases(none confirmed yet), but 80% are people who don't even have a high fever or body aches. They've brought in extra staff so they can triage people and tell them they don't have Swine Flu. It's almost to a full blown panic around here.

From everything I've heard reported and read myself, the virus is lacking one key ammino acid that would make it as virulent as the 1918 and other killer flu's. There's still a chance that could mutate into that, but they've seen no signs of it yet.

The CDC lab people say that Tamaflu has been very efficient at killing H1N1 when they test it in the lab studies. The guy I saw interviewed said it reacted to Tamaflu about as well as the more typical yearly flu's.

I think we all need to be vigilant in our hygiene and stay out of confined spaces for a few weeks if it's optional. I do a hand sanatizer 3 times a day to make it hard for germs and viruses to attach themselves. I think everyone needs to take a breath and realize there is no need for the full blown panic people have right now.

Esther
05-02-2009, 02:02 PM
My wife works in an ER and they have been slammed all week. Some people are potential cases(none confirmed yet), but 80% are people who don't even have a high fever or body aches. They've brought in extra staff so they can triage people and tell them they don't have Swine Flu. It's almost to a full blown panic around here.

From everything I've heard reported and read myself, the virus is lacking one key ammino acid that would make it as virulent as the 1918 and other killer flu's. There's still a chance that could mutate into that, but they've seen no signs of it yet.

The CDC lab people say that Tamaflu has been very efficient at killing H1N1 when they test it in the lab studies. The guy I saw interviewed said it reacted to Tamaflu about as well as the more typical yearly flu's.

I think we all need to be vigilant in our hygiene and stay out of confined spaces for a few weeks if it's optional. I do a hand sanatizer 3 times a day to make it hard for germs and viruses to attach themselves. I think everyone needs to take a breath and realize there is no need for the full blown panic people have right now.

I am hearing the same thing. However, my Mom heard in La that someone suggested that churches be closed down due to the flu epidmic. Crazy!

Praxeas
05-02-2009, 02:16 PM
I am hearing the same thing. However, my Mom heard in La that someone suggested that churches be closed down due to the flu epidmic. Crazy!
Rather...those sick stay home and have the ministers come and pray for them.

If the kids are sick keep them HOME.

*AQuietPlace*
05-02-2009, 02:32 PM
Rather...those sick stay home and have the ministers come and pray for them.

If the kids are sick keep them HOME.
It used to drive me CRAZY when I would take one of my children into the nursery to change their diaper, and there's a mom sitting in there with a sick child.... runny nose, cough, fever. It made me want to :pullhair :girlytantrum !!

If the kid's sick, TAKE HIM HOME, don't sit in the small, confined, germy nursery and share the joy! :smack

Praxeas
05-02-2009, 02:44 PM
It used to drive me CRAZY when I would take one of my children into the nursery to change their diaper, and there's a mom sitting in there with a sick child.... runny nose, cough, fever. It made me want to :pullhair :girlytantrum !!

If the kid's sick, TAKE HIM HOME, don't sit in the small, confined, germy nursery and share the joy! :smack
churches and Pastors need to tell and remind people about this. But we got this ingrained mentality that if you are sick go to church. I say, stay home and let the church come to you

*AQuietPlace*
05-02-2009, 02:47 PM
We used to have a sign on the nursery door reminding people that it wasn't a sick room. Even ADULTS would come sit in there because they were sick. HELLO!! How bright is that?? Share the germs with little babies. :smack

Praxeas
05-02-2009, 02:50 PM
Something else...your kid has the flu, she or he has a fever...do you remember how you felt as an adult? So why are you dragging your kid around town to church or whereever?

*AQuietPlace*
05-02-2009, 02:52 PM
Exactly. You've 'dun gone' and stepped right off into one of my pet peeves! :D

HeavenlyOne
05-02-2009, 03:44 PM
It used to drive me CRAZY when I would take one of my children into the nursery to change their diaper, and there's a mom sitting in there with a sick child.... runny nose, cough, fever. It made me want to :pullhair :girlytantrum !!

If the kid's sick, TAKE HIM HOME, don't sit in the small, confined, germy nursery and share the joy! :smack


The pastor I had growing up encouraged parents to bring their sick children to church and NOT stay home because the devil would use any excuse to keep people out of church. I remember one parent bringing in her child sick with mono! Stupid!!

Praxeas
05-02-2009, 04:21 PM
CDC announced 1 in 3 infected had visited Mexico previously

OnTheFritz
05-02-2009, 04:34 PM
Here are some notes from a doctor friend of mine:

This is certainly a new, and quickly-moving, strain of flu.•

Presently, the strain identified in the US is likely to make people feel sick, but only poses a serious risk to those who: (a) are highly susceptible to respiratory illness; (b) are very young or very old; (c) are already ill; and/or (d) have a compromised immune system (Eric, be sure you take your AZT).•

Swine flu is typically transmitted by direct contact (e.g.,..eating or drinking after, or snogging, someone who's sick) or via..immediate aerosol contact (if someone near you coughs/sneezes and you inhale the droplets ... ewwwww!). ..•

HOWEVER, its aerosol transmission is NOT terribly persistent ... meaning that once the cough/sneeze cloud dissipates, it's safe to be in the area. (There are some really nasty diseases for which this is NOT true ... smallpox and chicken pox are notoriously persistent when airborne.)• While it's true that an aircraft cabin is an enclosed space, the air inside the pressurized cabin is..not..recycled (contrary to popular belief). ..The air..is replaced continuously during the flight by outside air (compressed by the engine turbines and pumped into the cabin). ..This is mostly to prevent everyone from suffocation by all that pesky CO2..that everyone insists on exhaling. ..So unless you're seated near someone who is actively coughing or sneezing, you should be fine

Praxeas
05-02-2009, 04:35 PM
I had a pneumonia vaccination