The State of Our Economy
 

I am pretty well convinced that we are not at all out of the woods on the state of the economy. We had a million foreclosures in 2008, but what many don't know is that we had 2 million in 2009 and are projected to hit 3 million in 2010. Plus, on top of that, we are just getting into trouble with commercial real estate. Somehow, the government has managed to cover all that up and it looks like 2008 was a blip on the radar screen and that we are in recovery.

Another thing many don't know is that the laws were changed so banks don't have to report forclosures in the same way they used to.

Watch this video for a bit of information

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6Xr98wQxeg

Re: The State of Our Economy
 

By raising taxes, as this admin has announced it plans to do, private equity that would have been available to the economy will instead be locked up to shield it from confiscatory taxes rates. This will have a "snowball" effect throughout the economy.

Meanwhile, the Fed's current habit of printing money with nothing to back it will lead to inflation. We're set for a repeat of the "stagflation" of the 1970s. A stagnant economy with relatively high levels of inflation.

About the only good news is: a busted economy may help to keep oil and gas prices down. Of course, OPEC found a way around that problem back in the 1970s as well.

Re: The State of Our Economy
 

I think the government is covering things up so people don't panic. On the flip-side, people can't prepare either.

For some more bad news on the economy, we just have to look at the baby boomer population aging and starting to retire. This means social security and medicare (or whatever we will have) is going to go through the roof. We are simply on an unsustainable path and I don't understand what the government is doing to try and make things better. Of course, maybe the problem is that we are in so deep, we are at the point of no return. Never in the course of history has so much money been put into the system to try and stave off deflation. Of course, we need to stave off deflation but I'm very concerned about inflation (stagflation) instead.

They say we are creating new jobs. Doing what? The census (temporary) and new jobs to run the new government health care? What are we creating? What are we manufacturing?

Re: The State of Our Economy
 

My best friend's husband is a financial adviser. He is in agreement ILG about the commercial real estate collapse. He says that we are WELL AWAY from recovery - might not be for decades....if the Lord tarries :)

Re: The State of Our Economy
 

If you don't have time to watch the whole video, watch from 3:35-4:30.

Re: The State of Our Economy
 

Yeah. And there is so little about this in the media. The dow is back up but it seems like a fluff thing. I don't understand it.

Re: The State of Our Economy
 

Me either...but I do agree it's a fluff thing....

Re: The State of Our Economy
 

Anybody out there have any guesses as to why the dow is up so high? Do you think it's real?

Re: The State of Our Economy
 

It's real alright... they said that the stock market would recover first before the rest of the economy...

Re: The State of Our Economy
 

Do you have more to base your thoughts on than what you said? I suppose people might be heavily investing, trying to get back what they lost....but I wonder what people are investing with? Ben Bernanke said he didn't even know where all the money from the bailouts went. Maybe the government put some of it into the stock market.

Re: The State of Our Economy
 

ILG, it is very typical of the Stock Market to rebound within a year of a major fall off. it really is not a reflection of the real economy. In fact typically within 10 months you see as much as an 80% rebound

http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia2000.html

Stocks are valuations of businesses as a snap shot in time. They are not real markers of the strength of the economy per sey. And rarely have built in understanding of what will happen in the future, unless the company makes some statement about known write offs on the immediate horizon.

the first thing you have to understand is that when you have a hard crash like we had in early 2009, the psychology of a crash drives stock prices well below the real value of the business. That means a rebound will happen just to come back to level.

The second thing you have to understand is that publicly traded companies are most often evaluated on a year over year basis. So if a company tanks in 2009, their 2010 numbers can still be bad historically but if they are better than 2009, their stock price will reflect that as an uptick.

The stock market is not a very good indicator of where the economy is headed. It is more a reflection of where the economy is right now, with this time last year in view.

Re: The State of Our Economy
 

Maybe so. I just began to study economics (on my own) in the past few years and am trying to get a grip on what is happening here. Many believe we are going to have a double dip recession and that the stock market will crash again. They are saying to invest in commodities, precious metals and the like. It makes sense to me because unless the government gets really lucky and does things perfectly it looks like we are going to have some serious inflation and rising interest rates.

Re: The State of Our Economy
 

using Gold as a hedge against inflation is wise. but i dont know that it would be a primary invesment...

commodities are a realy dangerous investment and you better know what you are doing. LOTS of money can be made in it though. I suspect Oil is going to rise a lot in the near future....

As for double dip, I think it is more likely than not to happen but there are a number of things that have to happen to make it happen.

Re: The State of Our Economy
 

I think it is likely given that there is a second mortgate and commercial real estate crisis coming up.

I think gold is a good hedge. I think being diversified is best.

I have a book coming on commodities. I have never heard they are dangerous.