Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

Four years ago, on this very board, I posted that we were about to enter recession, and that the American nation would be changed radically, and forever.

At the time, many posters mocked me. Time proved all.

Economists say we exited the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression in 2010, and there is no doubt our GDP has been in the black, albeit just above it. However, new government numbers now show that our GDP for the first half of this year grew at only .8 percent.

Coupled with a very weak job market, and weak global economies, it is clear that we never really left recession. It is my belief that the stimulus package falsely inflated GDP. Now, the life support is gone, and the economy is refusing to breathe on it's own.

This is going to get bad. Very, very, very bad.

We are in the midst of a depression. By the time this is over, I expect unemployment to rise further, inflation to go higher, and many, many people to be hungry and without shelter.

Now, many of you will call me Chicken Little, and that's fine. For the rest of you, those with a functioning brain, I recommend that your prepare accordingly.

Store up food. Pay off bills. Secure your home.

in 2008, a shoe dropped. This time it's a hammer.

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

I like jab you sometimes Charn, and thought about posting something that would trigger another response...

But this time I'll just agree. Maybe not a sledgehammer, but a hammer nevertheless. Depends on what specifically you mean by very very very bad.

Want to step out and give some predictions?

Cash is about to become meaningless. Very few will have it, the few that do will be unable to afford anything extra, and banks are going to start charging people to hold it.

Multiple families will live in one home.

The homes that werenot lost to foeclosure will struggle to survive property taxes.

There are going to be food shortages.

I am seeing more and more people engaging in old time bartering.

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

Indeed, this would mean more hardship. Also, moral quandaries. bartering is illegal unless reported. Technically the Amishman that benefits from an old fashioned barn raising is required to report the estimated "value gained" by the donated event.

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

I'm inclined to agree, Chanock. Times are extremely tough. All of what's going on is messing with not only people's welfare/well-being/lifestyle/etc, it's messing with the mind too. I think, though, while it may appear we're heading for a downward spiral, God should be hearing from us more and more, whether to give Him thanks or ask for what we're in genuine need of; He's the only One we've got to rely on to get us through what we could be facing on the horizon...

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

From my perspective I am seeing this happening. Specialty retailers that I deal with are changing the way they do business. Where they used to buy huge quantities to get better pricing they are operating bare bones. Rather than stocking $200,000. in inventory they are stocking $20,000.

The future is too uncertain and volatile, and the market is currently very unpredictable by anyone's standards.

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

Just remember..

It's all George W. Bush's fault

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

I don't think hurting people will care about legal technicalities as times get even harder. Especially when the people paid to enforce the law are hurting too.

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

Amen.

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

People aren't spending like they used to either. They sense a shift. They are adjusting everything.

I read a paragraph from a CNN story today that said that 1 in 7 Americans is receiving food stamp benefits. Also, 25 million people are out of work, or are working part time because they can't find a full time job. That is roughly 1 out of every 12 Americans who are unemployed or underemployed.

Gold and silver prices are through the roof. That is a sure indicator of the current economic mood.

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

And poor Mr Light and Ms Seascapes will blame it on Republican tax cuts and fictional spending cuts.

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

I think this is over stated. "Cash will become meaningless" I don't see it. But anyway, even if all this happened, sadly a large percentage of Americans would STILL vote for OBAMA and blame Bush if this hypothetical came to pass.

I just don't see all the doom and gloom, but I've never felt we were out of the "recession" and really don't plan on things getting better before 2012.

I'm not about to hit the panic button either, God will provide, and already has provided.

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

Agreed. The government portion of GDP (which made up of gov't spending, consumer spending, and private investments) has been buoying total GDP deceptively, and the other two portions have yet to respond. The question there is: why?

Agreed. Unfortunately, it is almost a surety that things will get worse before they get better at this point. How many "very" s you tack on will depend upon your particular predicament.


Respectfully, the 2nd quote of the 2 above more closely describes deflation. In inflation, you have a glut of money that is worth less (or even worthless). In deflation, the money's value is high, but it's very hard to come by liquid cash and there's not enough to go around. This happened during the Great Depression, when some areas even used their own currency to exchange locally.

Some inflation can actually be good for debtors who hold fixed rate mortgages, because the X amount of dollars they have to pay per month is worth less than when they took out the loan, thus relatively easier to obtain the amount of dollars they owe each payment. However, those with ARM's are going to get nailed with rate increases to make up for the devaluation of the currency.

I agree with your premise overall that the economy is in for a world of hurt, but some of your scenarios are contradictory based on history. I am fairly certain that we are going to see a "double-dip" recession [e.g.:USA 1937], or at the very least a protracted period of stagnation [eg.: Japan in the 1990s] (or at worst, the "D" word.)

My best advice to anyone would be to get out from under variable interest rate debt ASAP.

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

Your post pic says it all, "Deception",the Hammer isn't falling the U.S economy, the U.S economy was founded on "DEBT". This debt carried over onto every generation until the fall of 1929, in which it became "insolvent" it has been insolvent ever since. We all understand the creation of the criminal non-Federal Reserve Bank (the same bankers who caused the crash of 1929) and the International Monetary Fund in 1945. And the role that it plays in manipulating world currency, everything is by design. You cannot rely on the information expressed over the cable airway by economist, pundits or U.S Government official. All are bought and paid for by special interest. The U.S does not have a representative Government (or representative free press) anymore and hasn't for nearly 80 years. The sooner the people realize this, the sooner this can be solved. The people in Washington does not serve at the behest of the people but for personal and special interest "ONLY". Every economic "crisis" is manufactured by the International bankers. Look around you, the rich are not in recession, only the people (the wage slaves). Who provide taxes for the rich to steal. In fact where is the criminal Congressional cartel this morning, while the people imagine there in another "crisis"? On another vacation.
Time for us to grow up and stop pretending.

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

Prepare for impact.

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

well, we can't possibly be happy about the direction the govt is going, all we can do is protest and vote.

on the other hand, it is well with my soul, God will supply the needs of his people.

and also, if my people will pray, then i will hear

when 30 percent of the world's population consumes 70% of the worlds resources, there is going to be a reckoning

maybe instead of being a consumer nation, we will have to learn to live more simply

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

America consumes around 25% of the worlds energy. America PRODUCES about 25% of the worlds GDP. A little perspective.

Why the foucus on consumer spending? It is consumer products that create jobs. With this defective leadership, our consumer spending is strong. It is at the gas pump and leaves a few hundred dollars a month less for other consumer products.

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

I agree. I don't know how bad it's going to get but S&P just downgraded the US rating.

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

Its disgusting. Yet when you see Biblically that there will be time in the future where the government of the beast in Revelation can control whether people can sell or trade, this fits the prophetic narrative. I have never seen the righteous forsaken nor their seed begging for bread. God is taking care of Christians now in impoverished nations. We North American Christians may have to learn to live without many of our comforts, but He has promised to help us and provide for us.

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

When I was young, I wrote software for my own stock market trading program in Fortran. High volatility is great if you have a technology edge.
The sell off is fueled by the shorts. No one does better at triggering and exploiting short selling than does George Soros.
naked shorts are a problem. Bear Sterns was killed by naked shorts.

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

One of the stupidest notions in recent time is "carbon trading" and offset trading. Totally dealing with imaginary products.

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

This kind of talk intrigues me , but I can't say I understand it much. :)

Re: Economy:The Hammer's Falling
 

Now Coadie, I don't understand this language either. Does naked shorts mean he wasn't wearing any? :foottap Just wonderin' :heeheehee Now I have always found that creeping shorts were the bigger problem! :happydance

Been Thinkin