Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

The Desmoines Register, which hasn't endorsed a GOP candidate since 1972, has endorsed Romney! This could tip the balance in a battleground state.


http://www.desmoinesregister.com/front//

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

doesnt matter.

No Ohio or Pennsylvania (which wont happen) = no presidency. Those 6 electoral votes in Iowa wont get the job done

You're wrong. Romney can lose both Ohio and Pennsylvania and still win if he wins Iowa, Colorado and Wisconsin along with Florida. Romney is ahead in Colorado, ahead in Florida, even in Wisconsin and very close in Iowa. If Obama loses Ohio he's pretty much a gonner. Not so with Romney. The key state this election could be Wisconsin.

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

Romney is unfortunately not ahead in Wisconsin the current, today, spread is Obama +2.3 and today's investor spread is 70-30 for Obama.

I note that Co, NH, Fl, Va appear to be in the Romney column and as stated earlier it is not enough. Even including Iowa where the spread, today, is also +2.3 percentage points (investor spread is 60-40, Obama).

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

My gut feeling is that the election will once again come down to Florida or Ohio. Romney will get Iowa and Colorado and Obama will take Wisconsin.

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

Florida looks solid for Romney. Ohio is a must but stubbornly staying blue.

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

Well I just checked by my own admission, the only way Romney can win without Ohio is if he gets Virginia, Wisconsin, and Florida. If Obama gets Wisconsin and Ohio and Romney gets Nevada, Florida, and Virginia it's be tied at 269 each the way I broke up the states. This is all also assuming Romney get's Colorado and Obama get's New Hampshire. Ohio is BIG. But so is Nevada and Wisconsin.

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

And if Romney and Obama each get 269 electoral votes
then the House of Representatives chooses the President
and the Senate chooses the Vice President

so we could have Romney as President
and Biden as Vice President

Rasmussen's daily tracking poll has Wisconsin in a tie. This week's NBC/WSJ poll has Obama up by 6 points which is skewing the poll averages. If you take it out of the poll averages, Obama is leading by a razor thin margin of 1 point. I don't understand investor spread. Momentum seems to be in Romney's favor. Who really knows? The more Democratic leaning papers that endorse Romney, the more credibility that Romney gains with the undecideds.

Let's put it this way: It's anybody's ballgame! It's gonna be very close! I think Romney will win, but I could very well be wrong.

This is true. Florida and Virginia seem to be in Romney's camp. It all comes down to Wisconsin IF Obama wins Ohio. Romney has some work to do. Obama's team is getting nervous!

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

Investor's spread:

http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/electoral-map/. Noted with concern is NH switch from red to tossup to blue over the last 3 days.

They nailed the last election but failed only to predict that splitting of a (single) electoral vote

Closest to following polls and usually 24-36 hours behind the investors:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo..._toss_ups.html

Appears to follow RCP by a day or two:

http://www.electionprojection.com/20...resident12.php

NOTE: The chances of Nevada switching to red from blue are zilch to nil LOL

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

The betting site is interesting. My guess is that these "investors" follow the polls and their gut instinct. Things could swing in either direction just like the stock market. The previous election was much easier to predict than this election.

I agree with you that Nevada will go to the Obama camp. It will be interesting to see which way the wind will blow over the next nine days. I hear there's a major hurricane blowing in from the right! :spit

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

Gap may be closing. A poll released today showed both R and O tied at 49% in Ohio.

I am hoping that in the states where Obama is a point or two ahead in polling he will lose that due to the "enthusiasm gap" in regards to actual turnout to vote. It could be wishful thinking but I can hope!

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

I agree. My impression is that some who voted for Obama in '08 just won't show up. And although many may show up to vote for Romney unenthusiastically, they do so simply because they can't stomach the prospects of four more years of the same.

"It's STILL the economy, stupid!" ;)

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

1.4 million votes were lost, in the last election, through glitches in the voter machines according to the US Election Assistance Commission (EAC).

It's easier to steal an election through glitches, because it leaves no fingerprints. It's possible to hack a machine, but it's much easier to cause a glitch. The votes just get lost.

Romney wouldn't be the nominee today if he had not won Iowa and he didn't because votes went missing. That's just a dry run of what is going to happen.

In Venezuela they get a little piece of paper after they vote that says who they voted for and then they hand it to a person and it's tabulated with the electronic results. They then say, "All right, these are corroborated. These results are good. The election goes on."

That's how they should run our elections in America.

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

<grin> Is that so? You are saying uncle Chavez should be on the ballot over here? LOL

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

LOL! I'm saying we need some way to validate our voting machines.

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

Dick Morris has repeatedly mentioned how important enthusiasm is. Gov Scott Walker was tied (or a point ahead) with his opponent in most polls yet won by 6-7 points on recall-election day.

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

It really doesn't matter which guy wins. They are both two pieces of corn in the same pile of ......... Quit putting your hope and faith in politicians.

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

It is ridiculous to try and act like there are no differences between the two Presidential candidates and the two parties.

There are significant differences that will affect my children and grandchildren. It is a cop out to not acknowledge those differences just because the more conservative candidate is not as conservative as one would like. Or because one thinks they should hide in a monastary and not accept any responsibility as a christian to make the world as best a place as you can.

If the attitude prevailed that the world is going to hell in a handbasket so we should just sit back and let it happen with no resistance Germany would be ruling the world.

Neither is a savior! Each will fall well short of their promises if elected. I just feel more confident that Romney knows what he's doing! Maybe not!

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

Not so fast. It would occur in the context of where we are that one would consider trusting God to take care of oneself and one's children and one's grandchildren. Idle speculation.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/a-news...9#.UI2zmJG9KSM

An Endorsement That Matters!

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

I think the notion that we just sit around and let events happen around us without any input is absurd.

As absurd as people who sit around and don't work because "God will take care of them". Same goofy rationale. As absurd as not taking care of your health because "God will take care of us".

God works through people and I have not doubt that he expects Christians to make as positive an impact and influence on the world as possible and that includes helping shape our government to be the best it can be.

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

Quad Cities Times, in Davenport, IA. just endorsed Romney. 1st Rep endorsement in 40 years

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

Newspaper endorsements don't carry the same weight they did before the internet but it is still telling that these traditionally Democrat newspaper's are crossing the aisle and endorsing the Republican candidate.

There is a chance that there is a bigger undercurrent of discontent that the polls are not capturing because people polled don't want to seem "prejudice" by opposing the first black President. If this is true Romney could win by a lot bigger margin than anybody is anticipating. I am not counting on that but it sure would be nice!

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

I think it's ridiculous to try and act like there are differences between the two presidential candidates! LOL

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

there are differences

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

unless Obama is polling at 50% in a state, he is not "leading" even if he is ahead.

History shows that a sitting president who is below 50% at this late stage generally does not win.

We shall see how this plays out but it simply is wrong to suggest Obama is "odds on favorite" in any state where he is polling below 50% even if he is ahead of Romney

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

Wow. Politics is definitely something i can comment on. First, let me say that Romney is ahead. As someone who watches the polls and follows these things closely...and has been involved in political campaigns some...i can tell you that almost all of the polls are very poorly weighted, and represent a poor sample.

For instance, in 2008 turnout was Dem+8 overall. That means that 8% more democrats voted than republicans did. In 2004 it was roughly Rep+4 if i remember correctly. What happened in 2008 was an anomoly. Republican enthusiasm was down. Democrat enthusiasm was up. Black turnout was up. Obama had everything going for him. So what is different this time? A lot of the polls are using the 2008 election as a basis for what will happen this time. They are projecting somewhere between a dem+5 and a dem+8 advantage. However, republicans outnumber dems by about 3 points right now. Republican enthusiasm is much higher than dem this time out. What will probably be more realistic is a Dem+1 or 2....or even a Rep+1 model. Romney is ahead with independants according to every poll by close to 20 points. If that is reality...then romney will win this thing by more than expected. I'm guessing it won't come down to ohio this year.

One final note. It is possible to get to 270 without ohio or pennsylvania....OR wisconsin. Virginia and Florida are definitely going to romney. After that, he just needs to get Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and either new hampshire OR 1 from Maine(they split their EV's by congressional district, and the 2nd district is pretty conservative). Nevada is not looking very good for romney though...so wisconsin is more likely to be the replacement....which has 10 ev's and then you don't need as much of the other states i just said.

Romney will win this thing. I wouldn't be suprised if he won ohio and pennsylvania and wisconsin...but out of all of those pennsylvania is the hardest get. I think if he wins PA...he likely has already won ohio, wisconsin and some other swing states.

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

Things are getting interesting!
Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll: Romney now has 2 point edge over Obama in Ohio!

"The candidates have been locked in a very tight battle in Ohio since August. A week ago, Romney and Obama were tied in the Buckeye State with 48% support each. This is the first time Romney has taken even a modest lead in the race."

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

and as a citizen of Ohio, I hope that as Ohio voted out a Democrat governor and voted in a Republican governor in 2010 we will vote out a Democrat president and vote in a Republican president in 2012.

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

Nope. They are the same.

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

from your lips to Gods ears.

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

We need to start a poll on affairs to see who everyone thinks is going to win!

Reagan or Carter!

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

Interesting stats on the received absentee ballot votes in Iowa. Pretty close numbers between Republicans and Independents.

Congressional District 1

Republicans 32,870
No Party/Independents 30,218

Congressional District 2

Republicans - 36,016
No Party/Independents - 31,616

The totals for all four districts show Republicans having 151,007. Combining the No Party and Other, you get 110,044.

Just thought that was interesting.

http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/20...enteestats.pdf

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

Also interesting to look at the absentee ballot stats for Maine. I was interested after what happened there during the primaries.

The Green Party and the Unenrolled/Independents, combined, have larger numbers than the Republicans.

Pie Chart to the right. This is in the Augusta, Maine newspaper.

http://politics.kjonline.com/

Re: Iowa Newspaper Endorses Romney
 

If there is a difference between the two it is this:

https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphot...74360416_n.jpg