Should We Believe this Poll or Not?
 

Is it beginning to turn around for McCain, or is this just an unreliable poll?

AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch


WASHINGTON (AP) - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord. Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php...show_article=1

Re: Should We Believe this Poll or Not?
 

RealClearPolitics.com is still showing an almost 7 point lead for Obama...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-225.html

...so I'm not sure how much stock should place in the AP poll. The AP poll might be accurate, and be reflecting the beginning of a turnaround for McCain, or it could just be way off. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Re: Should We Believe this Poll or Not?
 

Without knowing the criteria used, I think most polls are subjective.

Poll 1000 people in California and use them as a cross section for the country, and you'll get a much different result than if you poll 1000 people in Mississippi, and then another 1000 in Michigan, etc.

I realize that the first paragraph mentions whites making over $50,000 per year, but that leaves a whole lot of other groups that haven't weighed in on this poll, it sounds like.

Only time will tell, but thank goodness we're getting close to election day.

Re: Should We Believe this Poll or Not?
 

I think it was Whites making under $50,000

Re: Should We Believe this Poll or Not?
 

Oops, looks like we were both slightly incorrect - it's actually "whites AND people making under $50,000".

This is what I get for trying to reply while listening in on a conference call!

Good catch, tho.

Re: Should We Believe this Poll or Not?
 

the mere fact that these polls are all over the map points to how inaccurate they are. Two things are consistent: BO is leading, and his lead, even in the most favorable polls underscores an unreported factor. With this economy and the prez at deep lows in favorability, BO should be leading by 20 points. The mere fact that there ANY polls that show it close should cause concern among the Dems.

Re: Should We Believe this Poll or Not?
 

AFF'ing while at work, are we?
That's understandable... as a matter of fact, it's strongly encouraged!
And we're glad that you realize your main focus should be toward AFF, not your job.

...For the things concerning the job are temporal...but the things concerning AFF are eternal. (France chapter 2, verse 38):p:p

Re: Should We Believe this Poll or Not?
 

Man, I feel the anointing now! Preach!

Actually, the project in question, i.e. the subject of the call is becoming the "eternal" project. It just won't go away!

Re: Should We Believe this Poll or Not?
 

Yeah, you're right. That's what I get for trying to correct you :)

Re: Should We Believe this Poll or Not?
 

ahh yes the eternal project.... the bane of my existance and the reason for my employment! LOL!