Hurricane Irma
 

Re: Hurricane Irma
 

Heading my way in central Florida, I have a feeling.

Re: Hurricane Irma
 

She's a big one.

Re: Hurricane Irma
 

:-(

Re: Hurricane Irma
 

Well, at least I don't have to worry about that tree falling on the house.

Re: Hurricane Irma
 

000
WTNT41 KNHC 032052
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017

The satellite presentation of Irma has degraded slightly since
this morning with the eye becoming less defined. There is evidence
of some northerly flow beneath the cirrus outflow, which may be
disrupting the inner core and preventing Irma from strengthening.
The latest consensus of the Dvorak satellite estimates suggest that
the 100 kt initial intensity could be a little generous, but with a
NOAA aircraft headed into the hurricane it is best to wait until
data from that mission is received before making any adjustment to
the initial wind speed.

Irma has been moving more westward since the previous advisory, but
the longer-term motion estimate is still south of due west or
260/12 kt. A strong high pressure ridge over the central Atlantic
should steer Irma westward to west-southwestward during the next
couple of days. After that time, a turn toward the west-northwest
should occur as Irma approaches the western portion of the Atlantic
ridge. The cross-track spread of the guidance is still relatively
small through day 5, but the ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF are on the
southern side of the guidance envelope, with the GFS near the
middle of the envelope. The latest NHC track is once again near
the consensus of these typically reliable models, which is between
the southern edge of the guidance and the TCVN multi-model
consensus. The updated track is not very different from the
previous advisory, except at day 5 where it is slightly west of
the previous forecast.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center.
In fact, ASCAT data that arrived after the issuance of the previous
advisory indicated that the size of the tropical-storm-force wind
field has expanded, especially over the northern semicircle. As a
result, the initial and forecast wind radii have been adjusted
accordingly.


KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is expected to impact the northeastern Leeward Islands by
the middle of this week as a major hurricane, accompanied by
dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough
surf and rip currents. Hurricane watches have been issued for
portions of the Leeward Islands and additional hurricane or tropical
storm watches may be required on Monday. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by
officials.

2. Irma is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane through
the upcoming week and could directly affect the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and
the Bahamas. Residents in all of these areas should monitor the
progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. Tropical
storm or hurricane watches could be issued for the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday.

3. It is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have
on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in
hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane
plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 17.6N 49.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 17.2N 51.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 16.8N 53.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 16.8N 55.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 17.3N 58.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 19.1N 63.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 21.2N 68.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 23.0N 73.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/032052.shtml

Re: Hurricane Irma
 

000
WTNT21 KNHC 032050
TCMAT1

HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
2100 UTC SUN SEP 03 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST.
KITTS... AND NEVIS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
THE ISLANDS OF SABA... ST. EUSTATIUS... AND SINT MAARTEN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST.
MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST. KITTS... AND
NEVIS
* SABA... ST. EUSTATIUS... AND SINT MAARTEN
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... THE BRITISH AND
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IRMA. ADDITIONAL HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 49.8W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 50SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 150SE 150SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 49.8W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 49.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.2N 51.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.8N 53.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.8N 55.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.3N 58.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.1N 63.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 90SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 21.2N 68.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 23.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 49.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/032050.shtml

Re: Hurricane Irma
 

Re: Hurricane Irma
 

Re: Hurricane Irma
 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphi...e_and_wind.png

NOAA has this hurricane going south west through Cuba?