I think this Facebook post is a reasonable analysis
His post includes a map
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https://www.facebook.com/share/p/15TDWQks94/
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Reality check:
In 3 years of throwing everything they have at the Ukraine, this is the current area occupied by Russia. At the cost of a million casualties, 10,000 tanks, 20,000APCs and a complete depletion of its artillery rounds to the point the Russians are relying on 60-year old North Korean rounds
Its inability to advance on a country on its own border makes the argument that Russia is any threat to an air-dominent and nuclear-armed NATO (nevermind the US as Zelensky stupidly proffered) not credible on its face.
To eject Russia from its entrenched positions will take one of the following to occur:
1. A ground assault that will kill several hundred thousand more Ukranians combined with air assets that only the West can provide, pushing Russia to the point where the use of nuclear weapons becomes a very real option.
2. A negotiated settlement involving a combination of massive investment in Ukraine and the choice of deepening or loosening of embargos on Russia depending on their actions
For those who cry “Munich conference appeasement” may I remind you that Hitler did not have nuclear missiles.
Putin does, that is a reality that must be factored into decision making.
What happened yesterday was a wake-up call to those who preach endless war and endless US funding by an American President who understands the folly of this stalemate.
Another spring offensive and another 300 billion, from anyone, won’t eject Putin. And escalation risks nuclear war.
These are hard realities we must face as a nation, as an alliance and as a world.
Zelensky walked away from a half a trillion dollar investment in his country and a peace that stops the slaughter of his citizens when he knows full well these realities.
Ask yourself why and ask yourself who is actually the unreasonable, irrational, unhinged leader in this situation.
It is not a difficult question to answer.