Some Good thoughts and points that makes some scence as I don't see water baptism myself as a point of salvation I don't have a opinion. I still see baptims as a seal of our salvation. Just as circumsision was to Abraham.
Romans 4.
Here is a thought to ponder.
Jesus never refered to baptism to Nicodemus when he said born of water. birth of water goes all the way back to creation when God said let the waters bring forth life abundantly. Therefor Jesus had to be speaking of the natural birth.
How much more plain can you get to looking on the serpent in the wildreness, to beleiving on Jesus to be saved.