Quote:
Originally Posted by DAII
So you think the ship is sinking? What makes you say that?
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If you actually lose 70% of all non-daughter-work church plants AND THE MEN who start them, how can you possibly survive? Do they know where these men are going, and the reasons why they leave?
I bet they don't, and it's never occurred to them to ask.
Consider the long-term implications.
Let's say the UPC has 200 new plants a year. 140 of them will fail. 140 of the men who plant them will leave the organization.
That means we would have a net growth of 60 new churches per year.
However, you and I both know that there has been a zero growth rate for the last decade. We had 4500 churches in 2000, and that's about the same number we have now.
So...if 30% survive, that means that 30% of established churches leave each year, as well.
Think about it.
In the meantime, U.S. population is exploding. This means that our percentage of ministers, adherents, and churches per capita is plunging.
This all leads to one conclusion.
The UPC is in steep decline.
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