Bad Timing for Trouble to Come to White House

[Nitehawk013]

You're a few weeks late and a dollar short.

Deacon and I already discussed thi svery issue a few weeks ago regarding the economic issues. GOP leadership has helped those swing states and unfortunately the uneducated moron voters will think "oh gee...I guess Obaam isn't that bad". Obama gets to save face because of the hard work the GOP leaders did.

What Romney needs to do is get those Governors out setting the record straight that teh GOP fixed those state problems with no help from the empty chair in DC.

[deacon blues]

Originally Posted by Pressing-On

So, Deacon, You don't want to talk of more salient points than just skimming off the top of news feed?

So...your "salient point" was to copy and paste a transcript from ABC News?

I think George Will is wrong. I think the polls are wrong. That simple. Sorry, I'm not "going deep" enough for you. Lol.

[Pressing-On]

Originally Posted by deacon blues

So...your "salient point" was to copy and paste a transcript from ABC News?

I think George Will is wrong. I think the polls are wrong. That simple. Sorry, I'm not "going deep" enough for you. Lol.

Deacon, I think the point that Will was making is that Romney's campaign is running on the economic issue, under the Obama administration, and Republican governors are bragging that they are doing well. That doesn't mean that everything is fine under Obama, it's just that Republican governors know how to govern, have success, with or without Obama. That's the salient point.

I want to talk about the underlying issues under the headlines. George Will has done that. And I copied and pasted the quote so that you would read an accurate statement - or is accuracy overrated?

[deacon blues]

Will offered an opinion, not an accurate statement. He can't prove that folks will vote for Obama because their state is doing better anymore than I can prove that they will say, "under our former Democratic governor things were worse and with this GOP governor things are better, I will vote for the GOP presidential candidate." Will offers a plausible outcome, based upon his opinion, but it could just as easily go the other way---in my OPINION.

[deacon blues]

And Morris' assessment of how the pollsters are conducting the polls is a salient point that is underlying the headlines. The headlines are the polls. The underlying point Morris makes is that their sampling is flawed.

[Pressing-On]

Originally Posted by deacon blues

Will offered an opinion, not an accurate statement.

How can that NOT be an accurate statement when it is happening? Gov. Perry has more lawsuits against the federal government than just about anyone.

And I remember Ferd telling us in 2008 not to trust Morris.

InTrade has Obama at 68% and Romney at 32.6%. Now, I think if Romney does well in the debates, that could change. But, it's a different game for him than when the GOP worked with Romney to take out every candidate during the Republican debates. It will be interesting to say the least.

He says he has a good game plan concerning the independents - don't offend them by telling them they were wrong about voting for Obama, show them what Obama has done wrong. But, then in the same video regarding the 47%, he disses the Independents by calling them "emotional". LOL! He just can't seem to stop. But, Obama has made his gaffes and keeps going, so....

[deacon blues]

You cite InTrade a lot. It's the new kid on the block. The University of Colorado study is the one we all should take note of, since they've predicted every presidential election since 1980 correctly. They look at the Electoral College and individual states and take into account economic stats and determine whether that state will vote for the sitting president or the challenger. Back in July or August they had Romney winning in a landslide. No poll or InTrade or anyone else for that matter has been as successful as this study. They are doing an updated one in October. I'm very interested in seeing their assessments then.

[deacon blues]

Here's an article from The Daily Caller about the one of a kind study dated August 22:

A presidential election prediction model developed by two University of Colorado professors points to a big win for GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney in November.

The model, the only of its kind to use more than one state-level economic indicator, has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980.

It predicts Romney winning the electoral college by a 320-218 margin and winning 52.9 percent of the popular vote when only the two major parties’ candidates are considered, the Associated Press reported Thursday.

Romney, it concluded, will win every state currently considered by pollsters to be a swing state, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

The model even predicts Romney will win Minnesota and Maine’s Second Congressional District, the electoral votes of which most pollsters consider to be “safe” for President Obama. Nevada and Iowa are the only swing states it assigns to Obama.

“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” explained Kenneth Bickers, a political science professor at the University of Colorado-Boulder who developed the prediction model with Michael Berry of University of Colorado-Denver.

“The apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears,” Berry noted, ”when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent. The incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.”

Bickers said large issues like the economy and the country’s overall direction tend to determine presidential elections. Computerized prediction models “suggest that presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy,” he said. “It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy.”

Bickers and Berry cautioned, however, that their model used economic data from June, 2012. They intend to update their calculations when new data become available in September.

And many swing states showed close enough to a 50-50 split that factors other than the economy could tilt them in the opposite direction. Bicker and Berry also did not factor in third party candidates, such as Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson, who Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-affiliated polling firm, has noted could significantly diminish Obama’s chances of winning New Mexico.

Note the quote: "Computerized prediction models 'suggest that presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy,' he said. 'It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy.'"

[deacon blues]

In other words:

ITS THE ECONOMY, JUNIOR!"

[Pressing-On]

Originally Posted by deacon blues

You cite InTrade a lot. It's the new kid on the block. The University of Colorado study is the one we all should take note of, since they've predicted every presidential election since 1980 correctly. They look at the Electoral College and individual states and take into account economic stats and determine whether that state will vote for the sitting president or the challenger. Back in July or August they had Romney winning in a landslide. No poll or InTrade or anyone else for that matter has been as successful as this study. They are doing an updated one in October. I'm very interested in seeing their assessments then.

InTrade has been pretty successful, but I did read the article from the guys at the University of Colorado. And that will be interesting to see what they have for October. Again, just because I don't like Romney doesn't mean I don't think he could win. Whatever the polls are showing, I am seeing pockets, all over, of former Obama supporters who aren't that hip on him this time around. I'm fine with a Romney win. I'll just be glad that I didn't vote for him when his progressive bent comes back to bite everyone in the butt.