Quote:
Originally Posted by Ferd
In 2000 (the last resession) the NYSE lost 43% of its value and the NASDAQ lost around 66% of its value and everyone seems to agree that this is going to be a harder recession.
the NYSE high is somewhere just over 14,000 so we are nearing that 50% mark now.
It should also be noted that the stock market tends to be a leading indicator. Meaning it will drop before the full effect of the recession hits and will also rebound before the rebound takes full effect in the wider economy.
I do think we are getting close to the bottom because most of the losses have been factored in for the financial sector and the housing sector. However, the retail season is going to be tuff on retailers and there is still some room on the down side for retail stocks.
|
We hobbled from 2000 to here thanks to a housing bubble caused by slack lending practices. That did get us from there to here but it is now an additional complication to an already bad problem.
When there is a big hole in the side of the boat the fact that the water has been this high before is not the issue. The issue is that there is a rush coming in that we cannot overcome and the fact that we are sinking isn't changed by statistics of how close we have come before. We have been here before but the problem has never been what it is now.
High water marks of the past are nice info when everything is the same. We are entering a near perfect storm and no past experience we have been through is going to relate to where we are now.
Threaded Mode
