Hyperinflation-The Next Shoe To Drop

[mizpeh]

So the government has a classical Morton's fork. Allow large scale collapse of much of the marketplace or print worthless money to throw at the problem, causing unbridled inflation.

Correct management could head off a worldwide multi-year depression, but the steps being taken will make the situation worse not better.James, any advice for the average person?

James, you're talking "depression"!! Any advice for the average person who wants to be prepared, as much as is possible, for the future?

[EA]

Originally Posted by Praxeas

I don't remember anyone laughing you to scorn. We sure have a lot of pariahs on this board lol

You must have a very short memory.

[pelathais]

Originally Posted by Edward Anglin

You know, I'm used to the mockers Pel. Get in line.

I remember talking (on AFF) about a coming recession a year and a half ago, and getting laughed to scorn.

This is reality, Pel. Get used to it.

America as we knew it is already gone.

I have no idea if the "world is going to end" and I haven't brought prophecy into this discussion at all. You have assumed entirely too much.

Is Warren Buffet a "doom and gloomer?" George Soros? Ted Turner?

Every single government agency that deals in economics paints a "doom and gloom" picture for years to come.


Only a fool or insane person ignores reality, and refuses to prepare for his future.

I'm not mocking EA, and you are correct about "fools." And eventually, there will be an eschaton - even if just an end to the good ol' USA.

The thing is - we can do somethings to mitigate the effects of the natural turn downs in the business cycles. For example, putting a tighter reign on debt and our free spending ways. Brother Griffin has pointed out two big shoes that may drop on our heads soon related to this.

Another thing we can do is to stop cooking the books. That way when the down turns come we don't have to add a lot of our "evangelistic accounting" to the write downs and deepen the slide.

Hyperinflation can be easily avoided by just turning down the output from the Federal mints. The many other factors are just the piper demanding payment. He held off the rats for us, now he wants our children.

The only real answer is freedom and responsibility. Freedom will allow us to grow our economy, and responsibility will make certain that it's a healthy and balanced economy.

And yes, Buffett, Soros and Turner are "doom and gloomers." Each has a long record of that, especially Turner.

[pelathais]

This morning's news on Warren Buffet's "doom and gloom" -

"“The economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 -- and, for that matter, probably well beyond,” said Buffett. “Though the path has not been smooth, our economic system has worked extraordinarily well over time. It has unleashed human potential as no other system has, and it will continue to do so.

Buffett, an informal adviser to President Barack Obama, said the consequences of the U.S. housing bubble are now “reverberating through every corner of our economy.” Gross domestic product shrank at a 6.2 percent annual pace from October through December, the most since 1982, the Commerce Department said Feb. 27.

Late last year, “the credit crisis, coupled with tumbling home and stock prices, had produced a paralyzing fear that engulfed the country,” said Buffett, 78. “Fear led to business contraction, and that in turn led to even greater fear.”

All we have to fear is fear itself.

[TJJJ]

Originally Posted by pelathais

This morning's news on Warren Buffet's "doom and gloom" -

"“The economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 -- and, for that matter, probably well beyond,” said Buffett. “Though the path has not been smooth, our economic system has worked extraordinarily well over time. It has unleashed human potential as no other system has, and it will continue to do so.”

People have got to realize why Buffet, Turner and Soros are preaching doom and gloom. Those men are sitting on Billions wanting to invest. As long as they are forecasting that then the market confidence stays low and they can invest very cheaply.

It is all about the money with those guys. Soros is the one who shorted the Bank of England and made a couple of Billion on the deal if I remember.

You can't take anything they say to the Bank except follow their wave they are making and try to make some money on their comments.

I can't remember Soros, Turner or Buffet forecasting much two years ago! If they are our indicators, where was the indications 2 years ago?

[pelathais]

Originally Posted by TJJJ

People have got to realize why Buffet, Turner and Soros are preaching doom and gloom. Those men are sitting on Billions wanting to invest. As long as they are forecasting that then the market confidence stays low and they can invest very cheaply.

It is all about the money with those guys. Soros is the one who shorted the Bank of England and made a couple of Billion on the deal if I remember.

You can't take anything they say to the Bank except follow their wave they are making and try to make some money on their comments.

I can't remember Soros, Turner or Buffet forecasting much two years ago! If they are our indicators, where was the indications 2 years ago?

Turner has been so deranged in recent years that most people in the media have just tried to politely turn away.

And were was George Soros this past fall when everything was coming down and the Democrats needed their "October Surprise?"

[TJJJ]

Originally Posted by pelathais

Turner has been so deranged in recent years that most people in the media have just tried to politely turn away.

And were was George Soros this past fall when everything was coming down and the Democrats needed their "October Surprise?"

When we need indicators we will find something more in line with Chrisitanity
!

I do believe God can give us better direction than Soros/ Buffet/Turner!

[rgcraig]

Originally Posted by pelathais

Is that the stairway to heaven and he's going the wrong direction?

[stmatthew]

Originally Posted by pelathais

Turner has been so deranged in recent years that most people in the media have just tried to politely turn away.

And were was George Soros this past fall when everything was coming down and the Democrats needed their "October Surprise?"

I almost expected to see the "Branham halo" in this picture. If I was a photoshop guy, I would add one.

[ILG]

Originally Posted by James Griffin

There are two more blows coming to the US economy which combined will dwarf the sub-prime debacle.

Usually I dig things out on my own, this time I had help. As a member of the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners, and Bar of Texas, I can access the discussions in the ACFE and the State Section of Consumer Law which give a heads up on what is coming.

The usual estimate of loss on the sub-prime is around 905 billion.

The coming attractions

1. Defaulted consumer credit

2. Alt A mortgages.

Defaulted consumer credit- With years of granting easy credit to people who were not really credit worthy, and then passing laws making these debts NOT able to be discharged by bankruptcy, the scene is set for yet another disaster. Companies like Sears have been losing money from their brick and mortar for years. Their only profit center, bringing in commercial paper from easy term (no payment for 12 months etc) FICO challenged individuals and factoring that paper to third party collectors. When that collaspes even more blue chip defaults, conservatively estimated at 915 billion.

Alt A mortgages- the loans between prime and sub-prime. These are loans made to individuals and small businesses which would qualify for prime except they couldn't quite come up with documentation. Example self employment income, or not documenting the collateral in startups. As a further ripple effect through the economy, combined with unheralded outright fraud, this market will collapse. Estimated short fall, conservatively over twice the sub-prime, or 2 trillion or better.

They are not the only landmines left but they are a couple of the most imminent.

So the government has a classical Morton's fork. Allow large scale collapse of much of the marketplace or print worthless money to throw at the problem, causing unbridled inflation.

Correct management could head off a worldwide multi-year depression, but the steps being taken will make the situation worse not better.

I am all for a stimulus plan. Creating jobs to rebuild infrastructure is actually a great idea. However, in the current plans real stimuli are buried under mounds of pork barreling and insane expansion of pure welfare programs. Both of which will add to further weakening of the economy.

In the book I am reading (Crash Proof, that was talked about on the third video here) he says that often, welfare programs are funded with inflationary dollars created by the government, meaning that it's not real money...just fluff. He says that the government loves this because they are "giving" to people in need and they can hide real problems behind inflation. What do you know about this? I am just learning these things so I'm not sure if I explained it real well. I have been concerned (although not educated) about the larger economy for a very long time. Seems to me that it only makes sense when you have that large of a debt and throw money at everything that there will come a day of reckoning.