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10-06-2020, 09:52 AM
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Registered Member
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 3,596
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Re: I'll be the first to say it
Elections in this country are funny, and the judging after is quite skewed.
Take for instance the "Popular vote versus the electoral vote.
Hillary appeared to win the popular vote by almost 3 million more votes, but even that is not really an indicator of the real popular vote.
Let me give an example of that.
In many strong Trump states many who would have and could have voted for Trump didn't. Why? because they knew that in their state the electoral was already destined for Trump so.. why bother? They just sat at home and watched it play out. The problem with that is for the record, their vote didn't matter.
Clintons people were more galvanized to vote and they did, but they still lost the electoral vote in most states thus giving Trump the victory.
I see a situation today that is much more polarizing than 4 years ago. We are closer to civil war in many areas than ever before. I fully expect more people to get out and vote than 4 years ago. It is going to be interesting, that is for sure.
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10-06-2020, 09:57 AM
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Not riding the train
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 48,544
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Re: I'll be the first to say it
Quote:
Originally Posted by TJJJ
Elections in this country are funny, and the judging after is quite skewed.
Take for instance the "Popular vote versus the electoral vote.
Hillary appeared to win the popular vote by almost 3 million more votes, but even that is not really an indicator of the real popular vote.
Let me give an example of that.
In many strong Trump states many who would have and could have voted for Trump didn't. Why? because they knew that in their state the electoral was already destined for Trump so.. why bother? They just sat at home and watched it play out. The problem with that is for the record, their vote didn't matter.
Clintons people were more galvanized to vote and they did, but they still lost the electoral vote in most states thus giving Trump the victory.
I see a situation today that is much more polarizing than 4 years ago. We are closer to civil war in many areas than ever before. I fully expect more people to get out and vote than 4 years ago. It is going to be interesting, that is for sure.
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A candidate has to win from 3-5% of the popular vote to win the electoral college. Hillary only got 2%.
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10-06-2020, 10:03 AM
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Registered Member
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 3,596
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Re: I'll be the first to say it
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pressing-On
A candidate has to win from 3-5% of the popular vote to win the electoral college. Hillary only got 2%.
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You are right. I was speaking of the numerical difference I guess.
What I was saying was that the reason that Trumps numbers weren't quite as high was that in many of his strongholds people assumed that Trump was going to win there and just got .... lazy?
I think this time that it is going to be higher.
As far as Biden's poll numbers.... they are not correct. This is traditional for every election. The poll numbers right now are trying to be used by various ones and are being manipulated. As the elections draw closer then the numbers will get closer to being true because otherwise the pollsters would lose their reputations. We saw that 4 years ago and we will see that again this year. Watch as the election draws closer and you will see the polls tighten. Whoever wins will probably win by small percentage of popular vote.
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10-06-2020, 10:46 AM
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Not riding the train
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 48,544
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Re: I'll be the first to say it
Quote:
Originally Posted by TJJJ
You are right. I was speaking of the numerical difference I guess.
What I was saying was that the reason that Trumps numbers weren't quite as high was that in many of his strongholds people assumed that Trump was going to win there and just got .... lazy?
I think this time that it is going to be higher.
As far as Biden's poll numbers.... they are not correct. This is traditional for every election. The poll numbers right now are trying to be used by various ones and are being manipulated. As the elections draw closer then the numbers will get closer to being true because otherwise the pollsters would lose their reputations. We saw that 4 years ago and we will see that again this year. Watch as the election draws closer and you will see the polls tighten. Whoever wins will probably win by small percentage of popular vote.
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Because we are such a closely divided nation, I can see that. However, I am taking Blexit into consideration and the Hispanic poll after the debate. It looks like a substantial swing toward Trump, regardless of how the media is reporting it. He may win on a larger margin than what is being anticipated. We shall see.
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