Obama Is Going to Lose
 

McCain has stolen the "change" message from Obama-Biden. Obama has been around for over a year, he no longer is the fresh face in the race.

He loses on the energy independence issue, because he won't include in his plan for the short term drilling for domestic oil to bridge the gap between our dependence on oil to fuel our economy and alternative sources of energy.

He loses on taxes because he is proposing increased taxes versus making the Bush tax cuts permanent.

He loses on the experience issue because he has none.

He loses on abortion because he won't give a clear answer on when does life begin.

He loses on the War on Terror because he has finally admitted that the surge is working even after he has denied its success for a long time and even then says he would still have opposed the surge even with the knowledge that it would lead to success.

He loses having Jermiah Wright, William Ayers, Father Pfleger, Michelle's "first time to be proud of America" comments, his "bitter Americans clinging to their religion and guns" comment in front of a San Francisco crowd all on his record along with many other alarming statements and associations.

What can Obama do to turn the tide against him?

The only thing, in my opinion, he could do to reignite his campaign is to drop Biden from the ticket and picking up Hillary.

Don't be surprised in a desperate move if Obama calls on Hillary to save his candidacy.

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

Can he actually do that since Biden has already been nominated and aboved by the party?

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

Obama's tax policy

-- A tax credit for 95% of American taxpayers. Obama proposes a $500 cut in the payroll tax for most workers (those making under $125,000 a year) via a credit that is applied toward income taxes based on payroll taxes paid. Thus, if you don’t pay federal income taxes, you wouldn’t get the tax cut. The tax credit would take effect immediately, in the form of a rebate, to stimulate the economy.

-- A massive tax increase for taxpayers earning more than $250,000 a year in the form of higher Social Security taxes, higher Federal tax rates, and higher taxes on dividends and long-term capital gains (from 15% to 28%). Steve Moore, editorial writer for the Wall Street Journal, estimates that all told wealthy individuals could pay a marginal tax rate of nearly 50%, compared to the current 34% rate.

The New York Times reported (August 8, 2008) that Obama’s tax increases will be “slightly higher” than they were under Clinton’s tax hike of 1993. Clinton got away with the tax increases, because they took place during the roaring economic boom of the 1990s, but Obama’s sock-the-rich scheme is likely to backfire in the face of a weak economy. Revenues are likely to decline rather than increase.

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

Why not? Seems there have already been proof of lies about his ability to actually RUN for president. (according to the lawsuit)
I would say it wouldn't surprise me if they pull him as their candidate because of the lawsuit and put her in to replace him.

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It's been done once before, but I doubt he will do it. He will, perhaps, place her in a governing role to placate the people.

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

Because of what lawsuit?

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

dont get too excited yet. remember GWB has a very very very low approval rating.

regardless of any other fact or statistic, when the sitting president has a low approval rating, the presidency has ALWAYS been passed to the other party.

there is no reason for Obama to lose unless he provides one. As of yet, he has not provided a reason.

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

Regarding is he really a natural born US citizen. I bumped the thread.

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

Yes but we are not talking about hundreds of years of approval rating polls. Approval rating polls have only been around since modern times. We are talking about 20 presidential elections going back to Hoover. I don't know when approval rating polls started, but statistically, ALWAYS, when talking about 20 of anything, isn't as certain as it sounds.

And if there has been an election that is unique in all of American history, it is this one. A lot of the conventional wisdom is off the table with an African American leading the ticket in one party and a woman on the ticker in another.

The GOP convention went a LONG way to distance McCain from Bush. Hurricane Gustav could not have come at a better time. It became a convenient excuse to not have Cheney speak or Bush present. I don't think Obama has been successful or will be at protraying McCain as the Third Incarnation of President Bush. McCain has opposed Bush and the GOP enough to make the argument that he is not cut from the same cloth.

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

Oh my gosh! Are you in my brain today?!! This is exactly what I was thinking and going to post!!! Especially the Gustav comment, but I was afraid some would think I was aligning with Michael Moore. lol

Excellent - I agree. :thumbsup

I heard Britt Hume say the "Bush third time" is wearing thin already. I was surprised he said that, because I was feeling that a couple of weeks ago.

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

Your lips to Gods ears....


Just trying to keep this thing centered.


have you looked at the Electoral Maps? McCain has more work to do in Red states than Obama has to do in Blue states. That gives Obama the edge.

we really could lose Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada.

the only thing I think we can pick up (and it is a way outside chance) is Michigan.


that adds up to good news for Obama.


Bro, McCain is still a long shot..... and Rassmussen only has McCain up by 1 point.

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

Then why do we even bother with two months of campaigning?

Just go by the map and get it over with.

I tried to read more about the electorial college and it's still so confusing to me.

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I love this article and especially the part I quote. lol

Megan Basham
Republican Successes are Not Accidents

http://townhall.com/columnists/Megan..._not_accidents

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

That's great quote and so TRUE!

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Save the Electoral College
By Paul Greenberg
Wednesday, April 4, 2007

How strange: Legislators here in Arkansas, or at least those in this state's House of Representatives, have just voted for a bill that would cast the state's six electoral votes for whichever presidential candidate won the nation's popular vote.

That's right: This state's delegates to the Electoral College would no longer follow the wishes of Arkansas voters. Instead, they'd go with whichever candidate got the most popular votes nationwide.

Can this bill be constitutional? Can a state legislature reverse the result of a federal presidential election within its borders? And why would the state's own legislature take away Arkansas' right to vote for a president, and just go with the rest of the country willy-nilly?

Arkansas doesn't ordinarily play a large part in presidential campaigns as it is. After all, larger states have a lot more electoral votes to cast than a small one like Arkansas. But why sacrifice what little influence a small state has? It's a mystery.

Yet this is happening all over the country, as states are asked to join an interstate compact pledging to support the winner of the national popular vote. If successful, this movement would render the Electoral College meaningless.

It's all being done in the name of One Person, One Vote! Nice slogan. But it's no substitute for serious thought about the Electoral College and the role it plays in the complex American constitutional system.

The Electoral College is part of a delicate set of constitutional checks and balances. Change one part and the whole mechanism could be thrown off. The current electoral system means that a presidential campaign has to be waged nationally by large, well-organized parties-usually two-rather than by a bunch of competing individual candidates. Or by a dozen or so small parties slugging it out to see which one can win a bare plurality.

With the Electoral College in place, the winner has got to get enough votes in enough states to claim a majority of the electors-not just a popular plurality. That means organizing large, national parties, which is how the country's two-party system came about. Take away the Electoral College, and you take away a prominent inducement for having a two-party system.

The idea of electing the president of the United States by popular vote may sound unexceptionable in theory-One Person, One Vote!-but in practice it could be full of unintended consequences. The most troubling: What would happen to the two-party system? Right now, each party must achieve consensus in order to nominate a candidate who can appeal to the broad middle of the country, and so gain a majority of the Electoral College.

But if a presidential candidate needs only a thin plurality of the popular vote, splinter parties and extremist candidates would be encouraged. They'd no longer need a majority of the Electoral College to win, just more popular votes than the candidate with the next closest number of votes. Does anyone in this country envy the way the French elect their president-by popular vote in multi-party elections?

Look what happened in France's last national election in 2002: Between them, the three leading candidates barely managed to poll half the vote. What happened to the other half? Did it just disappear, like growth in the French economy? No, it was divided among the remaining 13-count 'em, thirteen-presidential candidates. (All it takes is 500 signatures from elected officials to get on the presidential ballot in France.)

A record number of the usually highly engaged French voters abstained from the presidential race-28 percent. And a bumper crop of splinter parties on the left-Greens, Trotsykites, Communists, the usual French proliferation-kept the favored Socialist out of the run-off. Instead, the second round of voting pitted a less-than-popular conservative against a right-wing radical, and the French were stuck with a choice between two unpalatable candidates, neither of whom could be said to represent any kind of national consensus. It was as if a presidential election in this country had been determined by the Ralph Naders and Pat Buchanans.

Inspector Clouseau could doubtless deliver a perfectly logical Gallic defense of such a system: Une personne, une voix! But to those who know their Burke and, yes, their Tocqueville, a better word for electing a president this way is wacky. Also, dangerous.

If just the popular vote counted, every close presidential election might prove as messy as the one in 2000, with the vote totals in every state as hotly contested as those in Florida were that confused year.

Edmund Burke tried to tell us: "The Constitution of a State is not a problem of arithmetic." Rather, it is a way to take into account the many dimensions of an electorate and forge a consensus that is greater than all its parts. That's where the Electoral College comes in. It may be an antique piece of clockwork, but it performs a valuable function within all the gears and levels of our constitutional system. It needs to be saved, not sacrificed to an empty slogan.

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

I'm putting it in my signature line! :ursofunny

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Let's see if my signature line is intact. :ursofunny

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

There it is!

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Well, I can only say that divergent views on Politics sit so much better with me than divergent religious views. I can make more sense out of politics than I can religion. :ursofunny

Oh, and I did red for the lipstick factor! LOL!

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

I'm sadly addicted to tracking the electoral college map on www.realclearpolitics.com. I think we are in for a close one. My only consolation is that while Obama is .4 ppts ahead in Colorado, he really should be much further ahead since Colorado was inundated with Obama coverage due the the DNC being in Denver.

Mccain has to get Virginia & Ohio & he needs either Colorado or New Mexico & Nevada to win. Pennsylvania & Michigan just moved back into the toss-up category, but both of those states are a long shot to win.

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

You know, my husband was saying that the saddest thing, in his opinion, is that this country is divided down the middle.

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Why do we even go vote - does it really change the electoral votes?

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

if you dont vote, Obama wins Tenn.... If I dont vote Obama wins Texas....


we better vote.

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Oh, I plan on it, but I believe people really have to wonder if it makes a difference and they just DON'T VOTE because of all the speculations beforehand!

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

hopefully those that dont vote are democrats......



The electoral college is a great protection. It prevents the tyrany of the majority and requires national candidates to pay attention to the entire country.

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

The other unknown is if Palin blows it badly in a debate/interview or makes a serious gaff on the campaign trail, but to be sure things are looking up.

I thought about maybe Biden being dropped as well, those democrats investors both with money and emotional loyalty are so invested when we get into October and things are still in McCain's favor look for a desperate move.

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

obama doesnt want hilary near him, mccain palin will win, obama will end up the hyped loser he is, dt

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You don't know how badly the dem's want the office back, if Lyndon Johnson could do it with Kennedy, I am sure that something could be worked out.

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They need to divide the eletoral college by voting districts, instead of one candidate getting all of California's 52, he should only get those districts that he wins.

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I do think there needs to be some changes made to it.

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i agree with you, however, if obama had wanted to guarantee a win, he could have alllready picked her, i think the anxt is to deep between them, he is going to lose, mccain/palin

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Another unreported fact is that Sarah Palin drew just one million less viewers than the Messiah when she was on only four networks versus Obama's eight. Furthermore, McCain's speech outdrew Obama while he competed with a Washington Redskins/New York Giants opening game of the NFL season.

Another fact that would be splashed all over the headlines and lead stories if the stats would have been the opposite.

Also: should the liberal media in their insatiable desire to destroy Palin continue to take cheap shots at Ms. Palin, they will only guarantee more sympathy to this very down-to-earth, one-of-us VP candidate. I hope they won't let up!!!!!!

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

I heard one unconfirmed report that Palin's numbers did not include some 3 million PBS views. that would put her 2M over Obama.

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How do you start a new thread i this forum? I heard today that Obama slipped in an interview and used the word "Muslim faith" instead of "Christian faith", when making reference to his faith. What do you all think of this slip? I ask as many think he really is a Muslim and not a Christian. Was it a mistake or a slip of the tongue. The Bible says the mouth speaks what is in the heart.

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that it was a slip. There is PLENTY of other things that were not slips that can be used against him in order to sink his campaign.

Kind of like the old "backward masking" craze of the 70s and 80s. I used to say, why bother playing those LPs backwards when the messages going forwards were bad enough?

Re: Obama Is Going to Lose
 

The news media is looking for this to happen. Most of them want Obama to win, so they are watching, waiting, and hoping for Palin to mess up so they can portray her as a lightweight.

Look how much mileage they got out of Dan Quayle misspelling the word potato. They tried to make him look like a moron just because he misspelled a simple word (something which any of us can do). I'm sure they'd love to do the same thing to Palin.

This writer has a good article on it here: The Media Plan to Destroy Palin.

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In fairness, I don't think his numbers included PBS either... just the commercial networks.

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Just remember Gore didn't lose the election because of FL, he lost the election because he didn't carry his home state of TN. The electoral college helps to ensure that every vote counts. It would be interesting to split the electoral college by congressional district.