Official Presidential Election Prediction Thread<<

[Monterrey]

Joe Biden : "It's that three letter word ... WORK! "

[canam]

"there has never been one day in the past for years iv'e been proud to be his vice president" ,we know the feeling joey, we know the feeling !

[Pressing-On]

Ray Stevens - Grandpa Voted Democrat

https://www.youtube.com/watch?featur...=WUEqh07E4dY#!

[Pressing-On]

Predictions on "This Week".

Don't agree with the ones that have Romney down that far in the Electoral College. We shall see. And I'm not sure that Obama would be down as far as George Will has him.

Electoral College

George Will

Obama 217
Romney 321

Cokie Roberts

Obama 294
Romney 234

Ronald Brownstein

Obama 288
Romney 250

Matthew Dowd

Obama 303
Romney 235

Donna Brazile

Obama 313
Romney 225

Popular Vote

Matthew Dowd

Obama 49.1%
Romney 48.3%

Donna Brazile

Obama 51.8%
Romney 48.2%

[CC1]

PO'd,

Where did you get George Will's prediction from? I am searching to read about his prediction and can't find it.

[Pressing-On]

Originally Posted by CC1

PO'd,

Where did you get George Will's prediction from? I am searching to read about his prediction and can't find it.

Ci, Ce Puedo,

It was on This Week with George Stephanopoulos. I wrote the figures down to check it out later, out of curiosity.

I agree that there is enthusiasm among Republicans to vote, but it's not because they are in love with their choice. It is their fear of Obama.

AND he said that Gov. Gary Johnson is the only candidate who passed out Marijuana rolling papers with his picture on them.

[Pressing-On]

Let's see how this pans out, for curiosity's sake as well.

Countdown: 3 days until election day and Obama still appears to be the clear winner with overwhelming odds against a Romney victory.

Keep in mind that numbers and money could be moving tomorrow. This is just a projection from today.

However, since yesterday Romney has gained a little momentum forcing the state of Colorado back into the toss-up category thereby reducing Obama's electoral votes by 9. Therefore, Colorado and Virginia are the only two remaining toss-up states and Obama still leads in both states but by less than a 10% margin.

As an example of how difficult it will be for Romney to achieve victory, even if Romney pulls off a miracle and wins both of the toss-up states of Colorado and Virginia that will only increase his electoral votes by 22 (9 and 13 respectively) which will still leave Romney 13 electoral votes shy of the 270 necessary to win the election thereby ensuring Obama's re-election with 281 electoral votes.

Currently the most accurate/predictive, unbiased, poll in the world, Intrade, is predicting:

1) Obama should win at least 5 of 9 swing states: Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin
2) Romney should win t least 2 of 9 swing states: Florida and North Carolina
3) Obama leads in the only two remaining toss-up (under 10% lead) swing states Colorado and Virginia and therefore should win both of those states with an outside chance that Romney could mount a come from behind victory in one or both states
4) Democrats should maintain control of the Senate
5) Republicans should maintain control of the House
6) Obama will win re-election with 281-303 electoral college votes
7) Romney will lose election with 235-257 electoral college votes
8) Winner of electoral college will also win the popular vote
9) 65.2% (+/-) chance Obama will win re-election
10) 35.7% (+/-) chance Romney will win election

http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/electoral-map/

[CC1]

Virginia should be an early bellweather of how Romney is doing Tuesday night.

[houston]

Spam



73054950.jpg

[Jay]

Originally Posted by Pressing-On

Let's see how this pans out, for curiosity's sake as well.

Countdown: 3 days until election day and Obama still appears to be the clear winner with overwhelming odds against a Romney victory.

Keep in mind that numbers and money could be moving tomorrow. This is just a projection from today.

However, since yesterday Romney has gained a little momentum forcing the state of Colorado back into the toss-up category thereby reducing Obama's electoral votes by 9. Therefore, Colorado and Virginia are the only two remaining toss-up states and Obama still leads in both states but by less than a 10% margin.

As an example of how difficult it will be for Romney to achieve victory, even if Romney pulls off a miracle and wins both of the toss-up states of Colorado and Virginia that will only increase his electoral votes by 22 (9 and 13 respectively) which will still leave Romney 13 electoral votes shy of the 270 necessary to win the election thereby ensuring Obama's re-election with 281 electoral votes.

Currently the most accurate/predictive, unbiased, poll in the world, Intrade, is predicting:

1) Obama should win at least 5 of 9 swing states: Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin
2) Romney should win t least 2 of 9 swing states: Florida and North Carolina
3) Obama leads in the only two remaining toss-up (under 10% lead) swing states Colorado and Virginia and therefore should win both of those states with an outside chance that Romney could mount a come from behind victory in one or both states
4) Democrats should maintain control of the Senate
5) Republicans should maintain control of the House
6) Obama will win re-election with 281-303 electoral college votes
7) Romney will lose election with 235-257 electoral college votes
8) Winner of electoral college will also win the popular vote
9) 65.2% (+/-) chance Obama will win re-election
10) 35.7% (+/-) chance Romney will win election

http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/electoral-map/

I am going to stand my prediction. Romney carries the entire Confederacy, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, the Heartland and Rocky Mountain states with the exception of New Mexico. I believe that he will take Nevada easily, and this leaves Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania as toss-ups. I see him doing well in Wisconsin, and possibly in Pennsylvania. Michigan will fall into the Obama Column, but it will be with nearly 10% split between the two of them. Minnesota will go Obama by only 3-5 split.