Is Bernard reading AFF? His 89% is now 85%. He lists 14 points to prove his one source that gave him a guesstimate is legitimate while referring to the others who concurred and why they are credible in concurring with the single phone interview he had with David Gray, in the early 1990's.
Bernard posted on August 21, 2012: At merger to form UPCI (1945), PAJC had 346 churches & PCI had 175 churches. At least 85% of ministers held that
Acts 2:38 was new birth.
-------------------
In my books, I have stated that at least 85% of the UPC ministers at the time of the Merger in 1945 believed that
Acts 2:38 was the new birth or essential to salvation. (See A History of Christian Doctrine, 3:115-121 for documentation. For discussion see also Understanding the Articles of Faith, 9-15; The Apostolic Life, 121-22.)
This number is an estimate, which means it is not exact, but it is more than anecdotal. It has more supporting evidence than any other estimate that has been given. Clearly there is no way at this date to make a definitive survey. Using information that is documented in my history book and reproduced below, here is how I arrived at this estimate:
1. David Gray said practically all the PAJC and 2/3s (67%) of the PCI believed the new-birth doctrine. He was youth president of the Western District PCI at the Merger and first youth president of the UPC.
2. E. J. McClintock concurred with this estimate. He was a pastor in Idaho (Northwest District) at the PCI at time of the Merger. He later became general Sunday school director of the UPCI.
3. Ellis Scism said only a minority in the PCI did not believe
Acts 2:38 was essential to salvation. He was superintendent of the Northwest District PCI at the Merger and became the first UPC district superintendent there. It must have been an obvious minority, not 49%, or he would not have made a definitive statement. His grandson and coauthor of his autobiography, Stanley Scism, recently posted on my Facebook page that he used the figure 1/3 (33%).
4. Since Gray, McClintock, and Scism were members of the PCI, if anything we would expect them to overestimate the size of the minority. Likewise, since both McClintock and Scism were from an area where this minority was concentrated, if anything we would expect them to overestimate. In short, their estimates are credible and reasonable.
5. Fred Kinzie, a PAJC minister at the time of the merger, stated that the PAJC held
Acts 2:38 to be the new birth and that a majority of the PCI concurred. Again, he would not have made this statement unless there was an obvious majority in the PCI, not merely 51%. See his book Strength through Struggle, 155.
6. I have supportive comments from two general superintendents who were part of the Merger: Stanley Chambers, last surviving member of the original UPC General Board, and Nathaniel Urshan.
7. I have an estimate of 90% from J. L. Hall, the foremost UPCI and Oneness Pentecostal historian until his death. (Because of his scholarship, he was the only living Oneness Pentecostal listed in The Dictionary of Pentecostal and Charismatic Movements.)
8. The number of churches seems the most reliable indicator of organizational size. Constituent numbers are difficult to obtain and subjective. Numbers of ministers are generally proportional to number of churches. The number of churches is the best estimate of the number of senior pastors, and the views of pastors are the most relevant when discussing doctrinal views of an organization.
9. The main areas of concentrations for the minority were the Northwest, the Northeast, and Tennessee/North Mississippi. The number of churches and ministers in the Northwest and Northeast was small. In the earliest list of Oneness ministers, 80% came from the West Coast (mostly California), the Midwest, and the South (see HCD 3:91). Thus, the estimates correspond to what we know about geographical distribution.
10. Let’s make some estimates based on the number of churches listed in the respective organizational directories at the time of the Merger: 346 PAJC + 175 PCI = 521 UPC total.
11. 100% of PAJC and 67% of PCI = 463, or 89% of total.
12. 95% of PAJC and 67% of PCI = 445, or 85% of total. I consider this reasonable and in accord with the evidence. I have mostly used this estimate.
13. 95% of PAJC and 60% of PCI = 434, or 83%. I used this estimate in one place.
14. 90% of PAJC and 60% of PCI = 416, or 80%. I consider this low based on the evidence. To go any lower, we would need evidence at least as specific and as well documented as what I have given.
Linear Mode
