GOP Candidates 2016

n david · #1 07-21-2015, 08:12 AM

The newest ABC Poll has Trump on top with 24%. It should be noted, this poll was mostly conducted before Trump's statement against McCain, and the pollsters noted a significant drop the final day of the poll.

The ABC/WashPo Poll 7/16-19:
Trump - 24%
Walker - 13%
Bush - 12%
Huckabee - 8%
Rubio - 7%
Carson - 6%
Paul - 6%
Cruz - 4%

FoxNews Poll 7/13-15:
Trump - 18%
Walker - 15%
Bush - 14%
Paul - 8%
Rubio - 7%
Carson - 6%
Cruz - 4%

Monmouth University Poll 7/9-12:
Bush - 15%
Trump - 13%
Cruz - 9%
Huckabee - 7%
Walker - 7%
Carson - 6%
Paul - 6%
Rubio - 6%

PollingReport

RealClearPolitics Poll 7/9-19:
Trump - 18%
Bush - 13%
Walker - 10%
Rubio - 6%
Paul - 6%
Huckabee - 6%
Cruz - 6%

RCP Poll

n david · #2 07-21-2015, 08:14 AM

Thus far, if the debate threshold remains at a candidate having to poll at 10% and if these numbers hold, the debates will only have three candidates: Trump, Bush and Walker.

Pressing-On · #3 07-21-2015, 08:16 AM

And the polling that got it wrong for Greece, Britain, Israel, etc.

Pressing-On · #4 07-21-2015, 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by n david

Thus far, if the debate threshold remains at a candidate having to poll at 10% and if these numbers hold, the debates will only have three candidates: Trump, Bush and Walker.

The polling will reflect who they want on the stage. Ted Cruz has raised more hard money than the other candidates. $14.3 to Jeb's $11.4. Ted will be on the stage.

n david · #5 07-21-2015, 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pressing-On

And the polling that got it wrong for Greece, Britain, Israel, etc.

I agree that polls get it wrong. A lot. IIRC, the polls had Romney winning in a landslide against obama.

The only problem is this will be the first year the polls will have a significant impact on the debates. Even if the polls are wrong, if the debates only allows those polling at 10% or more, Cruz, Paul and others are out. Hard to conduct a campaign, let alone win a race when your kept in the background and out of the debates.

I understand the GOP doesn't want another year like 2012, where there were 20 candidates on stage, but I don't like this.

Pressing-On · #6 07-21-2015, 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by n david

I agree that polls get it wrong. A lot. IIRC, the polls had Romney winning in a landslide against obama.

The only problem is this will be the first year the polls will have a significant impact on the debates. Even if the polls are wrong, if the debates only allows those polling at 10% or more, Cruz, Paul and others are out. Hard to conduct a campaign, let alone win a race when your kept in the background and out of the debates.

I understand the GOP doesn't want another year like 2012, where there were 20 candidates on stage, but I don't like this.

Fox News (capping out at 10 candidates) is determining the top 10 on the debate stage as those listed in the top 5 polls. All those listed in your polls are going to be the top 10.

It is worse than 2012. I see hardly any support for Jeb Bush, yet the polling has him on top.

n david · #7 07-21-2015, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pressing-On

Fox News (capping out at 10 candidates) is determining the top 10 on the debate stage as those listed in the top 5 polls. All those listed in your polls are going to be the top 10.

It is worse than 2012. I see hardly any support for Jeb Bush, yet the polling has him on top.

Oh, okay. I misunderstood. I thought it was those polling over 10%. This is better then, although 10 candidates are a lot to have on one stage.

Pressing-On · #8 07-21-2015, 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by n david

Oh, okay. I misunderstood. I thought it was those polling over 10%. This is better then, although 10 candidates are a lot to have on one stage.

Yes, it is a lot. It is quite a diverse group. The Dems have only white, rich people. Aren't they a gas after framing the narrative that the GOP is full of old, white racists?

Pressing-On · #9 07-21-2015, 09:07 AM

BTW, John Kaisch is announcing today that he is in the race. That brings the total of GOP candidates who cannot win to 12.

Evang.Benincasa · #10 07-21-2015, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pressing-On

BTW, John Kaisch is announcing today that he is in the race. That brings the total of GOP candidates who cannot win to 12.

Worked with Clinton to ban assault weapons? That J. Kasich?

Hey I wonder what these others feel about assault rifles?

Hey PO what is Cruz's voting history on assault rifles?