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Originally Posted by Pressing-On
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Interesting. I would think the last two stages could also pose an issue for Cruz as well. The GOP establishment doesn't like him, so they may do what they could to make sure their candidate (Bush or Walker) get the nomination instead.
IF, and it's a big IF, Trump's poll numbers hold true and he does well in the opening primaries and the GOP establishment signals it will not allow him to win the nomination, I could see Trump leaving the GOP race to form a 3rd party campaign.
However, if Silver's research holds that these poll numbers mean nothing this early, and Trump loses big in Iowa and NH, I could see him withdrawing early and not forming a 3rd party campaign.
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