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Okay, they're going to hell.
The "probably" is for the situations like where they repent, receive the Holy Ghost, and then slip on the baptismal steps, hit their head, and die before they are baptized. I believe they are saved, based on the principle of the direction that they are heading when they are accosted. (reference OT cities of refuge)
Jimmie Joe the Methodist convert is complacent and Laodicean if he doesn't discern doctrinal inconsistencies with the Word, and hunger for and seek out deeper truth. He will go to hell, along with the Methodists surrounding him telling him he's saved. People who have bibles are responsible for searching them.
When you think about it in those terms, it's pretty serious business, eh?
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