HMD, Coon & DKB recognize past failures

[Charnock]

Originally Posted by DAII

So you think the ship is sinking? What makes you say that?

If you actually lose 70% of all non-daughter-work church plants AND THE MEN who start them, how can you possibly survive? Do they know where these men are going, and the reasons why they leave?

I bet they don't, and it's never occurred to them to ask.

Consider the long-term implications.

Let's say the UPC has 200 new plants a year. 140 of them will fail. 140 of the men who plant them will leave the organization.

That means we would have a net growth of 60 new churches per year.

However, you and I both know that there has been a zero growth rate for the last decade. We had 4500 churches in 2000, and that's about the same number we have now.

So...if 30% survive, that means that 30% of established churches leave each year, as well.

Think about it.

In the meantime, U.S. population is exploding. This means that our percentage of ministers, adherents, and churches per capita is plunging.

This all leads to one conclusion.

The UPC is in steep decline.

[Charnock]

Originally Posted by Charnock

If you actually lose 70% of all non-daughter-work church plants AND THE MEN who start them, how can you possibly survive? Do they know where these men are going, and the reasons why they leave?

I bet they don't, and it's never occurred to them to ask.

Consider the long-term implications.

Let's say the UPC has 200 new plants a year. 140 of them will fail. 140 of the men who plant them will leave the organization.

That means we would have a net growth of 60 new churches per year.

However, you and I both know that there has been a zero growth rate for the last decade. We had 4500 churches in 2000, and that's about the same number we have now.

So...if 30% survive, that means that 30% of established churches leave each year, as well.

Think about it.

In the meantime, U.S. population is exploding. This means that our percentage of ministers, adherents, and churches per capita is plunging.

This all leads to one conclusion.

The UPC is in steep decline.

Further, if only 60 new plants survive, and we generously assign the average UPC church attendance to them (75), you would have a gain of 4,500 per year.

The U.S. population is growing by 3.8 million per year.

[DAII]

Originally Posted by Charnock

If you actually lose 70% of all non-daughter-work church plants AND THE MEN who start them, how can you possibly survive? Do they know where these men are going, and the reasons why they leave?

I bet they don't, and it's never occurred to them to ask.

Consider the long-term implications.

Let's say the UPC has 200 new plants a year. 140 of them will fail. 140 of the men who plant them will leave the organization.

That means we would have a net growth of 60 new churches per year.

However, you and I both know that there has been a zero growth rate for the last decade. We had 4500 churches in 2000, and that's about the same number we have now.

So...if 30% survive, that means that 30% of established churches leave each year, as well.

Think about it.

In the meantime, U.S. population is exploding. This means that our percentage of ministers, adherents, and churches per capita is plunging.

This all leads to one conclusion.

The UPC is in steep decline.

That sounds like a fair analysis but the reports are of explosive growth and revival. Bernard sugar-coated the mass exodus of the last two-three years as a "little bump" in the road.

I think the stats and admission of 3rd, 4th, 5th generation UPCers are leaving .... is the most alarming stat. The remedy to channel energies in 1st generation converts in this post-modern society seems to be a tall order under this archaic paradigm.

Do they really not get it .... or is the gravy train hard to relinquish?

[Charnock]

Originally Posted by DAII

That sounds like a fair analysis but the reports are of explosive growth and revival. Bernard sugar-coated the mass exodus of the last two-three years as a "little bump" in the road.

I think the stats and admission of 3rd, 4th, 5th generation UPCers are leaving .... is the most alarming stat. The remedy to channel energies in 1st generation converts in this post-modern society seems to be a tall order.

Again, we have not grown AT ALL over the past ten years. We have almost the exact same amount of churches now as we did then. We have grown our ministerial roster a bit.

[Charnock]

There is no explosive revival.

I know of no churches in a two state area who have grown by more than 50 over the last decade. Of course, I exclude those churches who have "grown" by stealing from other churches.

[DAII]

Originally Posted by Charnock

There is no explosive revival.

I know of no churches in a two state area who have grown by more than 50 over the last decade. Of course, I exclude those churches who have "grown" by stealing from other churches.

The trade-off you speak of .... also seems to be affecting the WEC ... losing established and even legacy churches to start-ups has affected the coffers.

[Maximilian]

#1 You compromisers are off your rocker! Where are you getting your math from! We are HAVING REVIVAL!!!!!

#2 Okay... so we're NOT having REVIVAL, but this is the narrow way. We're not interested in being the "fastest growing" anything. We are interested in pleasing Jesus!

Oh... I my brain has gone numb. What is "revival" again?

[Praxeas]

Originally Posted by DAII

The July 27th webcast is hilarious .... where Coon speaks that the UPCI and church plants must become relevant but feels he must define the word "relevant" and what it is not ... while admitting it has become a bad word in the UPCI culture ....

Well that is funny but I am glad he recognizes that.

I also agree with both, that we need both an emphasis on apologetics and training

[crakjak]

Originally Posted by Charnock

Consider what is asked of a young minister in the UPC.

First, when he feels a call to preach, he is told to attend an unaccredited UPC Bible College. He is asked to pay thousands of dollars (around 20k) to earn a theological or ministerial degree which is as worthless as the paper it's printed on.

As time progresses, and he attempts to earn a living while fulfilling his calling, he finds that 1) very few ministers are full time and, 2) secular employers have no desire to hire a worker with an unaccredited theological or ministerial degree.

This creates frustration, and a feeling of betrayal.

Later, as he becomes increasingly uncomfortable in his home church, and wants to branch out on his own, 1) his pastor will tell him that it is not God's will, 2) his pastor will give him a bit more string but still maintain control, 3) he will branch out on his own with absolutely no financial support.

In all of these situations he is asked to foot the bill entirely. He receives little to no support. All while he becomes increasingly aware of theological inconsistencies within the movement he serves.

That mind set must be deep rooted, a certain ex-UPC pastor in Austin, when a very visible young minister in his church left to start a new work in the Dallas area, sent him off with a huge $100. Great vote of confidence, eh??

[Jason B]

Originally Posted by Charnock

Again, we have not grown AT ALL over the past ten years. We have almost the exact same amount of churches now as we did then. We have grown our ministerial roster a bit.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

The ministerial roster is growing simply on the basis of awarding preaching licences correct?


If that assumption is correct, and based on my limited experience, a licence can be obtained by anyone willing to read a list of books, or anyone who has attended Bible "college", which in my again, limited experience, has been that some of these folks attending Bible college are somewhat flaky, seeming rather to prefer what they thing is a career of paid preaching over the actual responsibility of getting a job. When they find out thats not how it works, many of them are simply lay people with preaching licences.

In the end you have a bigger "roster" but fewer churches, and all the bigger or established churches are either 1)leaving the org or 2)going liberal, ignoring the teachings of the org, while NOT leaving. The end result is that there continues to be a steep decline in "quality" ministers and "quality" churches, (I use quality for lack of a better term).

In short there isn't any growth, so they produce dime a dozen young ministers eager to get a preaching license as their proof of "growth".