Hurricane Irma

[n david]

Originally Posted by Evang.Benincasa

Wait!!!

No leaving now, means no way of leaving now.

I'm stuck. I spent the entire day trying to get everyone out of Fort Lauderdale. Helping those who could not leave. Worked on everyone's generator and never got to getting mine going. Just stowed my tools in a semi safe place. My library I couldn't move. Rare books which will never be able to be replaced. The LORD gives and the LORD takes away, blessed is the Name of the LORD.

Do you have an attic? I saw a video where some guy in tx stored his guns in the attic to keep from the flood. Lucky he did so. Video showed him riding a boat to the roof where he used a chainsaw to cut out a section and get his guns - all dry.

[Esaias]

http://www.broward.org/Hurricane/Pages/Shelters.aspx



http://www.broward.org/Hurricane/Pag...ionRoutes.aspx

[Esaias]

Wind currents indicate Irma MIGHT slip into Gulf, now that Katia is no more...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#curren...0.95,17.91,762

[Esaias]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 090259
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight has found that Irma has
re-intensified to category 5 strength. The plane measured a
maximum flight-level wind of 154 kt and SFMR winds of 140-145 kt in
the northwestern eyewall, so the initial intensity is raised to 140
kt. The hurricane is producing very deep convection in all
quadrants around the eye, which the Air Force flight measured to be
35 n mi wide.

Apparently the ridge to the north of Irma has been stronger than
expected, and the initial motion remains westward, or 280/11 kt.
The track guidance continues to insist on Irma turning
west-northwestward soon, moving along the Cuban Keys adjacent to
the north coast of Cuba during the next 24 hours. After that time,
Irma is expected to turn sharply north-northwestward and accelerate
after 48 hours, moving parallel to the west coast of Florida and
then into Georgia. Mainly because Irma's eye has not deviated from
its westward motion, the new NHC forecast track has again shifted
slightly westward. Because of the hurricane's angle of approach to
the west coast of Florida, it is extremely difficult to pinpoint
exactly where the center might move onshore.

If the eye continues to move over the Cuban Keys and does not move
inland over the main island of Cuba, then Irma would likely not
lose much intensity during the next day or so. As we've stated
many times, fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 36
hours due to possible and unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles.
After 36 hours, there are some indications that vertical shear may
increase over the hurricane, and a little more weakening is
anticipated at that time. Because of the concerns in the track
forecast noted above, Irma would be able to maintain a strong
intensity for a longer period of time if the center stays off the
west Florida coast. Regardless, Irma is still expected to be a
dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and the west
coast of Florida through 48 hours.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge,
and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast
of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.

2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind
impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the
center.

3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in
portions of central and southern Florida, including the Florida
Keys, during the next 36 hours, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. The threat of significant storm surge flooding along the
southwest coast of Florida has increased, and 8 to 12 feet of
inundation above ground level is possible in this area. This is a
life-threatening situation. Everyone in these areas should take all
actions to protect life and property from rising water and follow
evacuation instructions from local officials.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of
20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida
peninsula through Tuesday night. Irma will likely bring periods of
heavy rain to much of the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, South
Carolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some
mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. All areas
seeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding
and flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 22.1N 77.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 22.6N 79.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 23.3N 80.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 24.5N 81.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 26.5N 81.9W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/0000Z 31.6N 83.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/0000Z 35.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 14/0000Z 35.5N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/090259.shtml

[Esaias]

000
WTNT21 KNHC 090258
TCMAT1

HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
0300 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE AND ON THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE AND ON THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA TO ANCLOTE RIVER.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA TO SUWANEE RIVER.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA TO FERNANDINA BEACH AND ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO
INDIAN PASS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCE OF MATANZAS TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD
DE LA HABANA. THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GUANTANAMO HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TO ANCLOTE RIVER
* FLORIDA KEYS
* TAMPA BAY

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA
COUNTY LINE
* NORTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TO ANCLOTE RIVER
* FLORIDA KEYS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY... CIEGO DE AVILA... SANCTI
SPIRITUS... VILLA CLARA... AND MATANZAS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND RAGGED ISLAND
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* NORTH AND WEST OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN... LAS TUNAS... LA HABANA... AND
CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA... FLORIDA... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 77.7W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 924 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 77.7W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 77.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.6N 79.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 80.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 110SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.5N 81.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.5N 81.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 140SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.6N 83.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 35.0N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 35.5N 87.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 77.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/090258.shtml

[Esaias]

Projected inundation (surge and flooding) map from NHC.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...ation#contents

[Amanah]

Originally Posted by Esaias

Wind currents indicate Irma MIGHT slip into Gulf, now that Katia is no more...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#curren...0.95,17.91,762

this is so gorgeous

[Esaias]

Originally Posted by Amanah

this is so gorgeous

You can zoom in or out, rotate the globe all directions, see the winds everywhere. At bottom left is the word "Earth" which if you click it opens a menu, you can select all sorts of stuff including altitude. Click on the map it should pull up wind speed at that location.

Pretty neat.

[Esaias]

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

The eye of Irma has been moving over the islands along the north
coast of Cuba, and satellite imagery along with preliminary
data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates
that the hurricane has weakened. The initial intensity is reduced
to 135 kt, and this may be generous.

The initial motion is now 285/10. Irma is moving along the
southwestern side of the subtropical ridge, which is about to
weaken due to a mid- to upper-level trough moving into the
southeastern United States. The track guidance is in good
agreement that Irma should continue west-northwestward for the next
12-24 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest that would
take the center parallel to the west coast of the Florida
peninsula. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should turn
northwestward and eventually stall as it interacts with the
aforementioned trough. The track guidance has changed only
slightly since the previous advisory. Thus the new forecast track
follows the previous forecast in calling for Irma to move along the
coast of Cuba, then over the Lower Florida Keys, and then over and
near the Florida West coast. It should be noted that because of the
hurricane's angle of approach to the west coast of Florida, it is
extremely difficult to pinpoint exactly where the center might move
onshore.

There is an opportunity for Irma to re-intensity as it crosses the
warm waters of the Florida Straits. However, the large-scale
models forecast significant westerly shear developing at about
24 h, and it is unclear how much strengthening could occur before
then. The first part of the intensity forecast thus calls for
little change in strength through 36 h, and Irma is still expected
to be a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and
the west coast of Florida. After that time, movement over land and
strong shear should cause steady weakening, with Irma eventually
decaying to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge,
and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast
of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through tonight.

2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind
impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the
center.

3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in
portions of central and southern Florida, including the Florida
Keys, during the next 36 hours, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. The threat of significant storm surge flooding along the
southwest coast of Florida has increased, and 8 to 12 feet of
inundation above ground level is possible in this area. This is a
life-threatening situation. Everyone in these areas should take all
actions to protect life and property from rising water and follow
evacuation instructions from local officials.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of
20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida
peninsula through Tuesday night. Irma will likely bring periods of
heavy rain to much of the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, South
Carolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some
mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. All areas
seeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding
and flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 22.5N 78.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 22.9N 80.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 23.8N 81.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 25.4N 81.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 27.7N 82.4W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/0600Z 32.5N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/0600Z 35.5N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 14/0600Z 36.0N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh.../090259.shtml?

[CC1]

My family in Miami evacuated to Tennessee. They left Wednesday morning and it took them 27 hours to make it to the Nashville area, a trip that normally would take 15. They crawled along I75 at 5 mph for hours before using a printed map to find old two lane roads with much less traffic.

Gas was scarce. At one spot they were about #40 in line and the station ran out of gas just before their turn. In another instance on one of those minor highways they needed gas in the middle of the night and stations were sold out but God helped them as they stumbled across a station where a fuel tanker had just pulled up and was refilling the tanks. By the time they finished filling up their gas tank word had got out and even though it was the middle of the night the gas station was swarmed with customers.

Now this was all Wednesday when the path of the storm was still not 100% certain though almost every model had the Miami area being hit to some degree and probably having a 5-10 foot storm surge. I can only imagine how hard it was to get out of Miami and South Florida on Thursday or Friday.

My daughter is glad her and her family are safe but very worried about irreeplacable family heirlooms, personal papers, etc they left behind. Their home is at zero elevation and in the area they are expecting the storm surge to be very bad.