The biggest problem I have with born of water = baptism and born of spirit = holy ghost is that those who hold this interpretation actually believe in three post natural births.
They believe in a birth only of water (water baptism).
They believe in a birth only of spirit (receiving the Holy Ghost).
They believe in a combined birth of water and spirit (being baptized and receiving the Holy Ghost)
Myself, I believe in one natural birth and one post natural birth. I believe Jesus spoke of being born again as if there was only one new birth not 3. Because of this reason I cannot believe that being born of water = water baptism.
I also believe if someone wants to make the case for water baptism being essential for salvation it can easily be done without a passage as indirect about water baptism as
John 3:5
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